VPI forecasts gasoline prices to decrease, diesel prices to increase in the operating period of November 7

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the November 7 adjustment period, gasoline prices may slightly decrease by 0.3 - 0.6%, while diesel prices may increase by 1.5% if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 66 VND (0.3%) to 19,334 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 123 VND (0.6%) to 20,377 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that diesel prices will increase by 1.5% to VND18,421/liter this period, while kerosene prices may decrease by 0.1% to VND18,806/liter, and fuel oil may decrease by 1.6% to VND16,198/kg. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

In the world market, in the trading session on November 5 (US time), Brent oil price increased by 0.6%, to 75.53 USD/barrel; US light sweet crude oil price (WTI) increased by 0.7%, to 71.99 USD/barrel.

According to Mizuho Financial Group, supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, the heat of the US election and weather conditions are factors driving oil prices.

Oil prices were also supported by the dollar falling to a three-week low against a basket of currencies. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.41 percent on Thursday to its lowest in more than two weeks. Energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico have begun evacuating workers from offshore rigs as Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen this week. Analysts expect the storm could cut US oil production by about 4 million barrels.

A larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories also weighed on oil prices and limited their gains. According to the weekly report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.132 million barrels in the week ending November 1, rebounding from a decrease of 0.573 million barrels in the previous week and surpassing analysts' expectations for an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

Previously, on November 3, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners (also known as OPEC+) decided to extend voluntary crude oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of December 2024. The decision was made amid weak oil demand and increased oil supply from non-OPEC countries.

According to VNA

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-giam-gia-dau-diesel-tang-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-7-11/20241106103221854