(PLVN) - Currently, international trade is being threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. What should Vietnam do to cope with this situation when Vietnam is the most open economy in the world?
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| Vietnam needs to diversify its export markets soon to avoid being strongly affected if a trade war breaks out. (Photo: VGP) |
(PLVN) - Currently, international trade is being threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. What should Vietnam do to cope with this situation when Vietnam is the most open economy in the world?
Risk of a "trade war"?
According to data from the General Department of Customs, in 2024, Vietnam's total import-export turnover is gradually approaching a historic level of 800 billion USD with export turnover reaching 405 billion USD. Of which, exports to the United States alone reached nearly 119 billion USD, an increase of 23.3% over the same period in 2023. Vietnam became the 8th largest trading partner and the 4th largest import market of the United States in the ASEAN region. In contrast, the United States is the second largest trading partner and the largest export market of Vietnam.
As soon as the United States announced that President Trump had won a new term, a series of experts made recommendations so that Vietnam could avoid the maximum risks from the country's new tax policy when President Trump officially takes office.
Currently, many countries have been directly affected by the new tax policies of the US President. The risk of a trade war has been identified. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) commented that at present, international trade is being threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. Instead of opening up and reducing barriers, the motto of this ideology is to build more barriers and impose high taxes on imported goods. In addition, many countries use a number of non-tariff measures such as licenses, quotas, etc.
Most recently, after returning to the White House for a second term, President Donald Trump immediately used tariffs as one of the main tools to reshape economic and foreign policies with other countries.
What scenario to respond to?
At the regular Government meeting in January 2025 (held on February 5, 2025), Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh assessed that the world and regional situation is evolving very unpredictably, directly affecting Vietnam, especially exports. The Prime Minister requested that it is necessary to forecast and analyze closely the situation in February and the coming time, especially new issues, emerging issues, such as the possibility of a global trade war, which, if it occurs, will disrupt supply chains and narrow export markets; thereby proposing solutions to respond promptly and not be passive.
At the same time, the Prime Minister suggested a number of solutions such as continuing to focus on renewing traditional growth drivers, promoting new growth drivers; continuing to expand and diversify markets, products, and supply chains, especially new markets such as the Middle East and South America.
At the spring meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien also assessed that, in the context of complicated and unpredictable developments in the world economic and political situation, the whole industry needs to continue to focus on effectively exploiting existing markets, while promoting negotiations, signing and opening new markets, contributing to supporting businesses to diversify markets, products, supply chains and boost exports.
Previously, as soon as the news of the next US President-elect Donald Trump's prediction about using tax policy on imported goods as an effective tool to attract investment back to the US, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also proposed 2 scenarios to respond to this event. Accordingly, the optimistic scenario is that the US maintains the current tax policy on Vietnamese goods and Vietnam will benefit when the investment flow tends to shift, leading to the shift of the supply chain. At that time, Vietnam can completely welcome the investment flow to increase the advantage of being an exporting country in the Top 20 of the world.
In the second scenario, if the tariff is more severe and stricter, it may affect the global economy, causing Vietnam's export of goods to be affected to some extent. The Chinese market - a major partner of the United States, if facing difficulties due to tariffs, will also create pressure in the United States and affect Vietnam. With this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider reporting to the Government to support manufacturing and export enterprises in diversifying markets in the coming time.
Source: https://baophapluat.vn/viet-nam-chuan-bi-kich-ban-ung-pho-voi-kha-nang-xay-ra-chien-tranh-thuong-mai-post539082.html
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