Houses devastated by bombs in Gaza (Photo: THX).
China can contribute to Gaza's post-war economic and political reconstruction through peacekeeping missions and economic aid, but its ability to influence a lasting ceasefire is much more limited than that of the United States, according to Carice Witte, founder of an Israel-based think tank.
Israel on November 22 approved a temporary ceasefire with Hamas in exchange for the release of dozens of hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The US and the European Union (EU) also discussed taking over the post-war Gaza Strip with international peacekeepers earlier this month, Bloomberg reported, describing the talks as “preliminary.”
If UN peacekeeping forces are deployed in Gaza, China will be one of the leading powers in efforts to protect the region, said Chu Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Strategy and Security.
"Israel is unlikely to eliminate Hamas by force and an Israeli occupation would certainly be counterproductive. This means that peacekeeping forces may one day be needed here," he said.
Mr. Chu, a former colonel of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), said China, as the largest peacekeeping force provider among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, would be well-qualified to lead peacekeeping efforts.
Beijing has 8,000 peacekeepers in the UN reserve force, but currently only a few thousand Chinese peacekeepers are deployed. Between 1992 and 2018, the Chinese military sent more than 35,000 troops to 24 UN peacekeeping operations around the world.
But Mr. Zhou added that Beijing had little say in Israel’s decision to agree to a ceasefire or to govern Gaza after the war, and noted that China did not have the power to block Israel like the United States.
“After the ceasefire, the exact role China can play will depend largely on the agreement reached by the parties. Beijing’s role in Gaza, whether as a potential peacekeeper or as a mediator, will depend on Israel’s solution to the region,” he said.
According to Bloomberg , Israel has so far remained skeptical about the plan to deploy an international peacekeeping force. According to the Gaza government, at least 14,500 Palestinians have been killed, including at least 6,000 children and 4,000 women, in Israeli attacks. Despite criticism, Tel Aviv describes its military moves in Gaza as self-defense in response to "Hamas attacks."
Tuvia Gering, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, agreed that Israel might be reluctant to welcome an international power to monitor Gaza, citing the limited progress of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the peacekeeping force in the country.
UNIFIL was created to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon after Tel Aviv’s 1978 invasion. Its mandate was expanded to allow the Lebanese army to take control of the south of the country, but also called for a full ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. But the ceasefire has not been achieved.
Gering said that UNIFIL's failure to maintain peace between Israel and Hezbollah shows its "powerlessness" in resolving the issue according to UN resolutions and could make Tel Aviv doubt the credibility of the UN peacekeeping force.
UNIFIL currently has around 400 Chinese troops, according to official UN figures. Beijing could play a key role in Gaza’s economic reconstruction strategy, according to Carice Witte, an expert. She said that when the war ends, the Gaza Strip could be under the influence of a coalition led by Gulf states and Egypt with “strong Palestinian leadership.”
"At that time, China, which supports the Arab position, can play a positive role in the reconstruction of Gaza and contribute to bringing jobs and hope to the Palestinian people," she said.
But Gering notes that China has shown little interest in investing in Gaza’s economic reconstruction. “I find it hard to imagine China stepping in by sending workers into the area as long as political and physical security is not guaranteed,” Gering says.
Yahia Zoubir, an expert at the Doha-based Middle East Global Affairs Council, agreed that Israel has no plans to retake Gaza and that control could be transferred to the Palestinian Authority. "It will be difficult to completely eliminate Hamas, but if Israel succeeds in doing so, it still needs to worry about 'other Palestinian resistance movements' that may be more powerful than Hamas," Zoubir said.
Beijing will continue to try to persuade countries in the global south to oppose the US and the EU, he said. “Beijing can exploit the cracks in the Western world to put more pressure on the political process… But the key is Washington,” he added.
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