(NLDO) – UOB experts forecast that the USD price in Vietnam could reach a high of 26,000 VND in the third quarter of 2025.
On February 8, the central exchange rate was listed by the State Bank at 24,462 VND/USD, stable compared to yesterday and the highest level since the beginning of 2025.
The USD price at commercial banks is trading around 25,130 VND/USD for buying and 25,490 VND/USD for selling, stable compared to yesterday. Over the past week, the USD price at banks has increased by nearly 200 VND, a strong increase compared to January 2025.
The USD price in Vietnam is under pressure in the context of the USD on the international market rising strongly in recent days. At one point, the USD index (DXY) was approximately 110 points and is currently trading around 107.9 points.
In the latest financial market update report just released, experts from the Global Market and Economic Research Department, UOB Bank (Singapore), said that in the context of rising US inflation expectations and US tariff policies with trade partners, the USD will be the main beneficiary. The DXY index is forecast to increase to 112.6 in the second quarter of this year.
USD/VND exchange rate is under pressure as the USD maintains a high level in the international market.
In the domestic market, the USD/VND exchange rate had a lull in January 2025 when US President Donald Trump did not impose tariffs on China from the first day. This caused the USD/VND exchange rate to retreat from its record high of nearly VND25,500, falling to around VND25,100 during the first month of the new year.
"However, this stability was quickly broken after Trump announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China in early February, causing the USD/VND exchange rate to increase again to around VND25,300. With the US Federal Reserve (FED) taking a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts this year, along with uncertainties from tariffs and China, the USD/VND exchange rate is likely to maintain its upward trend," said UOB experts.
According to UOB’s latest forecast, the exchange rate will increase to a peak of VND26,000 in the third quarter of 2025 before cooling down in the last quarter of the year at VND25,800/USD.
In its latest economic update report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank said that the exchange rate is still being tightly controlled, helping to limit short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. Although the fiscal deficit has been maintained at an average of about 2% of GDP over the past two decades, the Vietnamese economy has maintained a solid growth momentum. The State Bank of Vietnam may need to increase foreign exchange reserves to avoid excessive appreciation of the VND.
Regarding domestic financial institutions, MBS Securities Company also assessed that the weakening of the USD in January 2025 helped significantly reduce pressure on the exchange rate. The interbank exchange rate fell to 25,082 VND/USD at the end of the month. The free market exchange rate also had similar developments when it fell to 25,500 VND/USD.
However, challenges remain as the trade war is forecast to be a supporting factor for the USD in the coming time. According to MBS experts, exchange rate risks still need attention in the coming time. The exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 25,500 - 25,800 VND/USD in the first quarter of 2025. On the contrary, there are still positive supporting factors for the VND such as a positive trade surplus, abundant disbursed FDI capital and strong recovery of tourism...
Source: https://nld.com.vn/vi-sao-chuyen-gia-du-bao-gia-usd-co-the-cham-26000-dong-usd-196250208104039672.htm
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