After a gloomy week, in the first session of the week (November 11), stocks continued to be under pressure to correct, falling deeply below the 1,250 point mark. What are investors 'anxious' about?
The stock market lost nearly 8 more points in the morning session on Monday (November 11) - Photo: QUANG DINH
The stock market has just experienced a week of volatile trading, in the context of many important international events such as the US presidential election and the Fed's November policy meeting...
Stocks continue to adjust
VNDirect Securities Analysis Department observed that the excitement of the domestic stock market after receiving the news of Mr. Trump's election victory quickly turned to skepticism about the impact of upcoming economic policies on trade and investment relations between the US and Vietnam.
Many say it is too early to assess the detailed impacts, but concerns are not unfounded as Vietnam had a trade surplus of about $100 billion with the US last year.
But according to Mr. Michael Kokalari - CFA, director of macroeconomic analysis and market research at VinaCapital, concerns about risks have been "pushed beyond necessity".
Michael Kokalari said last year’s $100 billion trade surplus made Vietnam the third-largest trade surplus country with the US, after China and Mexico. However, this could be addressed by buying high-value products such as LNG and aircraft engines from the US, according to VinaCapital.
"Mr. Trump has assembled a knowledgeable, talented economic team. They understand the negative consequences of imposing heavy tariffs on imported goods into the US. These negative consequences include hindering the process of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, because high tariffs will push up the value of the USD," said Mr. Michael Kokalari.
From the perspective of an expert with many years of experience in international organizations, Mr. Kokalari believes that Vietnam will maintain stable development momentum.
"Although the US may impose new taxes on imported goods, we believe it is unlikely that the US will impose heavy taxes (20-30%) on imported goods from Vietnam," VinaCapital experts predicted.
Money flows to America
Another thing the market is concerned about is the continued flow of money into US stocks. WiGroup data shows that money flowing into US stock ETFs in 2024 has recorded an all-time high of $572 billion.
Meanwhile, Asian stock markets, especially emerging and frontier markets, continue to be "shunned" by foreign investors' cash flows.
In a frontier market like Vietnam, since the beginning of 2024, foreign investors have net sold nearly VND 80,000 billion on HoSE - a record level in more than 24 years of operation of Vietnamese securities.
Since the beginning of November (also the time when Circular 68 allowed foreign investors to buy stocks without having enough money), foreign investors have net sold nearly 4,000 billion VND.
Mr. Truong Dac Nguyen - head of analysis department at WiGroup - said that the increase in the price of the USD index (DXY) is considered the biggest reason for foreign net selling.
"This reason seems reasonable for about a year now, when the correlation between foreign cash flow and DXY in the period 2020 - 2023 was positive," according to Mr. Nguyen.
But in fact, according to WiGroup, there is a simpler reason to explain the net selling phenomenon of foreign investors. That is, the profit rate of developed markets, especially the US, is more prominent than emerging and frontier markets at this stage.
Also according to WiGroup, last week the State Bank injected a total of more than 65,000 billion VND on the open market channel.
"The regulatory agency is simultaneously carrying out two extremely difficult goals: keeping interbank interest rates from falling too low to reduce pressure on the exchange rate, but not raising them too high to reduce capital costs for the banking system," said WiGroup's head of analysis.
Regarding exchange rate pressure, experts at Dragon Viet Securities (VDSC) said it will only happen in the short term due to interest rate differences.
"We believe that the prospect of a weak USD will return to help stabilize the exchange rate space and the State Bank's monetary policy," VDSC experts forecast. This assessment is based on two bases: the Fed has further cut interest rates and concerns about the US fiscal deficit policy that could put pressure on the USD.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/vi-sao-chung-khoan-viet-hung-khoi-ngay-ong-trump-dac-cu-roi-quay-xe-20241111125457805.htm
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