As the war in Ukraine prepares to pass the 1,000-day mark, US media cited several sources confirming that incumbent US President Joe Biden has just allowed Kyiv to use long-range weapons provided by Washington to attack Russian territory.
This is considered a surprising development because for many months, the White House under Mr. Biden has almost firmly rejected Ukraine's proposal to use long-range weapons to attack deep into Russian territory. Previously, even when persuaded by the British leader, Mr. Biden did not agree.
Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery at Russian forces on the battlefield
While the White House refused to comment on the information, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticized the new US decision for "adding fuel to the fire".
The risk is not too great?
It is not difficult to understand why Mr. Biden previously refused to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to attack Russian territory. Because allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons provided by the West to attack Russian territory could make the conflict in Ukraine more tense, even spreading out of control for the United States.
In September, when Ukraine actively lobbied the US and its allies on the issue, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that if NATO lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range Western missiles to strike deep inside Russia, Moscow would consider it an act of war. Therefore, President Biden's new decision has many people worried that Russia will react strongly and lead to a wider conflict.
The US has recently supplied ATACMS missiles to Ukraine but has not allowed them to be used to attack Russian territory. With a flight ceiling of up to 50 km, a speed of Mach 3 (3 times the speed of sound) and a range of up to 300 km, ATACMS will be the weapon that Ukraine can use to attack Russian territory after Washington removes the barrier for Kyiv. However, as CNN quoted some sources, it is confirmed that the US has not actually supplied many ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
In addition, compared to the period of August - September, when Ukraine's attacks penetrated deep into Russian territory, the situation has changed. Specifically, Moscow has recently continuously overwhelmed Kyiv on the battlefield. Therefore, the pressure on Moscow has also decreased. In addition, because Moscow still controls many areas of Ukraine, if using ATACMS, Kyiv can only attack about 100 km into Russian territory, but it is difficult to attack deeper. Therefore, the risk of major damage to Russia is not too high.
Those are optimistic analyses of the risk of widespread war.
To "card" for Mr. Trump?
Commenting on Thanh Nien on November 18, US defense intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster assessed that President Biden's new move is aimed at increasing political pressure on Moscow to change its strategy, opening up opportunities for peace negotiations.
The decision was made by President Biden when there are only about 2 months left until US President-elect Donald Trump officially takes office. Forecasting the White House's policy after Mr. Trump takes over, expert Schuster assessed: "Mr. Trump's intention is to limit and end conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to devote more resources to the Pacific and East Asia. His strategy is to threaten to cut US material support to the participants. In the case of Europe, the US is providing most of the military equipment and ammunition to Ukraine."
Therefore, to end the conflict in Ukraine, Washington can use the aid "card" to pressure Kyiv to sit at the negotiating table even without receiving the condition that Russia return the occupied areas. The increasingly low public support for President Volodymyr Zelensky is also becoming a burden for the current Kyiv government. Meanwhile, Mr. Zelensky is facing pressure to hold a presidential election in Ukraine after a delay due to the war.
On the contrary, President Biden's permission for Ukraine to use long-range weapons provided by the US to attack Russian territory could become a "card" for Mr. Trump to put pressure on Moscow for peace talks. Mr. Trump is not responsible for this decision of Mr. Biden, but can use it to negotiate with President Putin. Because of the fact that Russia's resources are being reduced, if in the long term Ukraine can attack deep into its territory, it could become a significant pressure for Moscow.
White House's response to the Middle East
Predicting the White House's upcoming strategy for the Middle East, expert Schuster said: "Mr. Trump will not cut support for Israel but will threaten to withdraw troops from Iraq and Syria (only about 2,000 people). However, he will not withdraw from the fight against the Houthi forces in Yemen. Mr. Trump will also authorize stronger and more frequent airstrikes on some targets in the Middle East, while re-imposing tougher sanctions on Iran that Mr. Biden has lifted."
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/tuong-lai-xung-dot-ukraine-khi-ong-biden-manh-tay-giup-kyiv-185241118204550929.htm
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