Rice export prospects for the last 6 months of 2023 are assessed as relatively positive.

Rice exports continue to flourish Promoting rice production and export: Prime Minister requests ministries and branches to join in

The information was given by Mr. Nguyen Nhu Tiep – Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) at the meeting of this Ministry on the rice export situation. Mr. Le Minh Hoan – Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development chaired the meeting.

Rice exports to most markets increased sharply.

Mr. Nguyen Nhu Tiep - Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) - said that in the first 6 months of 2023, domestic rice prices decreased in the first quarter of 2023, then gradually increased and stabilized in the last 2 months of the second quarter.

Đến năm 2030, Việt Nam giảm mục tiêu xuất khẩu gạo còn khoảng 4 triệu tấn

Rice export prospects for the last 6 months of 2023 are assessed as relatively positive.

Regarding the rice export market, in the past 5 years (from 2018 to 2022), rice export volume has maintained an export volume of over 6 million tons and has tended to grow over the years with an export value of over 3 billion USD per year. In 2022, the rice export volume will reach 7.1 million tons (up 16.3% compared to 2018), the export value will reach 3.45 billion USD (up 12.7% compared to 2018).

In the first 6 months of 2023, the rice export volume in June 2023 is estimated at 650 thousand tons with a value of 383 million USD, bringing the total rice export volume and value in the first 6 months of 2023 to 4.27 million tons and 2.3 billion USD, up 22.2% in volume and 34.7% in value over the same period in 2022.

In the first 5 months of the year, rice exports to most markets increased sharply compared to the same period last year. In particular, the Philippines was the largest rice export market in the first 5 months of the year with a volume of 1.53 million tons, worth 772.4 million USD, up 20.7% in volume and up to 31.1% in value compared to the same period last year, accounting for 40.3% of the total rice export volume.

China is the second largest market with volume reaching 632,469 tons (up 62.8%), worth 364.17 million USD (up 79.2%), market share accounting for 19%.

Indonesia is a market that unexpectedly rose to the number 3 position in rice export market in the first 5 months of 2023 with a volume of 369,032 tons, an increase of 16 times (1,498%) over the same period last year.

In addition, rice exports to some markets increased sharply in the first 5 months of the year such as Taiwan increased by 142.3%, Senegal increased by 1,147%, Chile increased by 4,120%, Türkiye increased by 15,972%...

Rice exports to some markets in the EU also grew at triple digit rates, such as Poland up 117.4%, Belgium up 164.9%, Spain up 307.6%...

Regarding rice export prices, the average in the first 6 months of 2023 is estimated at 539 USD/ton, an increase of 10.2% over the same period in 2022.

As of June 23, Vietnam's 5% broken rice was priced at $503 per ton, up $5 per ton from 10 days earlier, equal to Thailand's 5% broken rice and about $15 per ton higher than the same type of rice from India. Vietnam's 25% broken rice also increased by $5 per ton to $478 per ton, $8 per ton higher than Thailand's same type of rice and about $25 per ton higher than India's rice. Overall, the average export price of rice in the first 6 months of 2023 is estimated at $539 per ton, up 10.2% over the same period in 2022.

The outlook for the rice industry is assessed as relatively positive.

In recent years, the Government has paid great attention to perfecting policies to promote rice exports. In addition, the demand for rice has increased slightly, possibly due to limited supply of other food sources. Difficult markets such as Europe, Korea, Australia and some newly opened markets in the Middle East create opportunities to increase the export of high-quality rice when consumers are very fond of high-quality rice from Vietnam.

Vietnam still holds a large market share in the Philippines because customers are familiar with the quality of Vietnamese rice and Vietnamese rice has a logistics advantage over other sources.

Overview of the meeting

In addition, demand in traditional markets such as Indonesia has increased again. China has opened its market after the Covid-19 pandemic, import demand is expected to return to previous years. According to the EVFTA, Vietnam is granted a quota of 80,000 tons, including 30,000 tons of white rice, 30,000 tons of fragrant rice, and 20,000 tons of brown rice. Therefore, export rice orders that are in the above list are exempt from the tax of 175 ER/ton. This is a huge advantage for import businesses.

Besides the advantages, rice production and export also face difficulties . Accordingly, the supply is unstable throughout the year due to the crop structure. Rice production faces many risks due to climate change, El Nino phenomenon, saltwater intrusion;..

Competition between major countries, between major economies, changes in trade policies, conflicts, and increasing protectionism. Countries continue to increase technical barriers and trade defense measures.

High inflation in some developed countries, tight monetary policies, especially in major markets such as the United States and Europe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to have complicated developments affecting trade and causing difficulties in market output; price fluctuations.

Vietnam's rice exports are likely to continue to slow as supplies from the winter-spring crop have run out.

However, the outlook for the rice industry is considered relatively positive in the last 6 months of the year as rice output in many producing countries in Asia is at risk of decline due to the impact of El Nino, which will boost demand as well as rice prices in the international market.

In order to implement the goals and solutions for developing the rice export market in the Strategy for Developing the Vietnamese Rice Export Market to 2030 and the direction of the Prime Minister in Official Dispatch No. 610/CD-TTg dated July 3, 2023, Mr. Nguyen Nhu Tiep proposed that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development review and update standards in the rice value chain in accordance with the international market; Update information, support production according to market demand and consumer tastes; support preservation, processing, quality, safety, traceability; Research, develop and submit for promulgation a Decree on management of agricultural product brands (including rice products);...

At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is requested to study and share market information; evaluate and forecast long-term demand and consumer tastes in each market area to serve the orientation and adjustment of production and export activities. Prioritize resources for Vietnam's key agricultural export products, including rice (trade promotion funds from the National Trade Promotion Program and the Vietnam National Brand Program). Connect trade, promote consumption; develop and open markets for Vietnamese agricultural products to diversify the market.

Proposal to the State Bank ensure preferential credit sources for export enterprises.

Mr. Le Minh Hoan – Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

In the first 6 months of 2023, rice exports reached 4.27 million tons, worth 2.3 billion USD... Thus, the total output for the year is expected to reach around 8 million tons, earning a value of over 4 billion USD.

Source link