This early general election could mark a significant transfer of power between the two leading political parties in Britain.
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| Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (left) and opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer. (Source: Independent) |
On July 4, the UK will hold its first national election in nearly five years. During this time, London has witnessed a series of major changes: King Charles III was crowned, three prime ministers took power, and the UK has been steered through many upheavals, including Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel-Hamas, US-China competition, and the emergence of a series of new security challenges.
Against that backdrop, this election could mark another significant shift: the opposition Labour Party is poised to regain power from the Conservatives after 14 years.
What is the probability for this scenario?
Challenge for the old
The scenario of a Labour return is plausible when looking at what the UK is facing. The Financial Times (UK) commented that the country's economic growth since 2010 has lagged behind the historical trend since World War II. The economic burden has reached an 80-year record, government debt is at its highest level in the past 6 decades. Infrastructure and public services, from the health system, public transport to the wastewater management system, show signs of overload, while defense capabilities have not responded to the rapid and complex changes of the international situation.
In addition, there have been many scandals involving the leadership of the Conservative Party in recent times, notably former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His successor, Liz Truss, also served only 45 days before having to give up this position to Mr. Rishi Sunak. However, whether Mr. Sunak can sit in the hot seat after July 4 is still a difficult thing to say. The heavy defeat of the Conservative Party in the local elections in early May is clear evidence of that possibility.
But it would be unfair to deny what Mr Sunak has achieved. Inflation in the UK was 11% at the end of 2022 – now it has fallen to 2.3%, the lowest in three years and in line with his pledge. But the current British Prime Minister’s other promises, such as economic growth, debt reduction, improved healthcare and curbing immigration, have not been as successful.
Opportunity for newcomers
On the other hand, according to the Financial Times , the Labour Party under Mr. Keir Starmer is currently in a good position to return to the leadership of the UK. Five years ago, under Mr. Jeremy Corbyn, a politician with a far-left tendency, this scenario was considered far-fetched. But now, with the leadership of Mr. Starmer, the Labour Party has gradually escaped its old-fashioned interventionism and transformed itself into a credible political party with a more moderate stance.
Mr Starmer and the Chancellor have worked hard to work with businesses and the City of London to restore confidence. This approach is less ideological than that of the Conservative government and has been welcomed by businesses. Labour has also put restoring growth at the heart of its agenda.
The stability, predictability and competence that the party promises are something that has been lacking in British governance for years. These are the elements that are needed to help London attract investment. Its pledges to reform the planning system and give more powers to regions to remove constraints on growth, housing capacity and infrastructure are what the UK economy needs.
But the picture is not all rosy for Labour. Its reluctance to talk about a trade relationship with the EU would block another avenue for economic growth. And if it were to take power, Labour would soon face the daunting task of cutting public spending, changing financial regulations or taxing the economy. The London-based Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that Labour’s pledges to increase real spending on health, education and defence would mean cutting other public services by £9 billion ($11.41 billion) a year by 2028.
Change to survive
Finally, it is not difficult to see that the trend for change in Europe is stronger than ever. In the French parliamentary elections on June 30, the far-right National Front (RN) party of Ms. Marine Le Pen won 34% of the vote, followed by the left-wing New Popular Front with 28%. The centrist coalition of current President Emmanuel Macron won only 20% of the vote.
It seems that the decision to hold early parliamentary elections did not bring the results that the French leader had calculated. More importantly, the change in the balance of power in one of the “leading” countries of the European Union (EU) will have a significant impact on the bloc’s stance on many key issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict, relations with the US and China, or non-traditional security issues such as combating illegal immigration or combating climate change, etc.
Mr. Sunak, with the decision to hold a national election nearly 6 months earlier than expected, clearly does not want to follow in the footsteps of the French President. But after all, in the context of the Labor Party's advantage, the story of "staying or leaving" for the Conservative Party and the British Prime Minister will now depend on the votes of nearly 4 million voters in the foggy country.
| On July 4, British voters will elect 650 members of Parliament in a single round - the candidate with the highest number of votes will win, even if he or she does not get a majority. The party with enough votes to form a government will be asked by King Charles III to form a government. If no party gets that number, the current Prime Minister will remain in power until the parties reach an agreement to form a coalition, form a minority government, or resign. |
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/tong-tuyen-cu-anh-truoc-nguong-cua-moi-277312.html
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