What does US intelligence think about the cause of the Gaza hospital explosion that killed hundreds of people?

The Hamas-run Gaza Health Authority said 471 people were killed in the explosion at the Al Ahli al Arabi hospital on October 17. Palestinians and Arab states said an Israeli airstrike hit the hospital, according to Reuters.

Speaking to reporters by phone, US intelligence officials said on October 25 that they were "very confident" in their assessment that the explosion at Al Ahli al Arabi hospital was not caused by an Israeli rocket, but they were not sure which Palestinian militant group launched the rocket that caused the explosion at the hospital on the evening of October 17, according to NBC.

"We assess with high confidence that Israel was not responsible for the hospital explosion and that Palestinian militants were responsible. We assess with low confidence that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was responsible for the rocket attack on the hospital," a US intelligence official said.

Palestinians look at the scene of an explosion at Al Ahli al Arabi hospital in Gaza City

US officials have previously indicated that PIJ was likely responsible for the Al Ahli al Arabi hospital blast, and Israel has said the blast was caused by a failed rocket launch by PIJ. In response, PIJ has described the Israeli military's accusations as "lies", arguing that the Al Ahli al Arabi hospital had been evacuated by Israeli authorities and that a bomb dropped by an Israeli military aircraft caused the tragedy, according to AFP.

Meanwhile, US officials said the evidence against PIJ was based on conversations between “Hamas-linked fighters” intercepted by Israel, who appeared to be speculating about who was behind the rocket attacks. “We can’t confirm who they are. We can’t confirm that what they were discussing in those conversations actually happened,” the intelligence official said.

Gaza refugees are overwhelmed, disease begins to spread

The officials said the US assessment was based on intelligence, open-source video and imagery and some activity, all of which pointed to a rocket explosion rather than an air-dropped bomb or artillery shell used by Israel.

The intelligence official added that the explosion caused only minor structural damage at the hospital and no apparent damage to the main hospital building, which is consistent with the impact of a rocket equipped with a smaller warhead. U.S. intelligence assessed that the first object that fell was the rocket engine and the second was the rocket's warhead, which caused the larger explosion, the official said.

"Based on those videos, our conclusion is that there may have been a catastrophic engine failure that caused the engine and the warhead to separate. The warhead landed in the hospital area and that was a second, much larger explosion," the US official said.

"We cannot rule out that new information may change our assessment of this issue in the future. However, we are very confident in our conclusions," the US official stressed. The official also said that Palestinian rockets often misfire and miss their targets, according to NBC.

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