Continue the rally towards a new record?

Pepper prices on June 13, 2024 are forecast to continue to increase to reach 190,000 VND, aiming for a new record after several consecutive increases. Experts say that pepper prices in the world and in Vietnam have increased sharply because Brazil and Vietnam, the two countries that determine global supply, are experiencing a decline in output due to El Nino weather causing drought. Supply in Indonesia, India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka is also limited.

Pepper price forecast June 13, 2024: Continuing the upward momentum towards a new record

According to assessments, in the long term, in the next 3-5 years, the amount of pepper produced cannot meet the world's consumption needs.

Other factors besides supply and demand that have pushed pepper prices up include ocean freight rates. The global container index, which represents spot container freight rates on major international shipping routes, has returned to its peak during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Shipping market research firm Linerlytica said that ports in Southeast Asia are becoming the “most serious bottleneck” for the world’s maritime transport, with 26% of global container capacity stuck in the region.

Accordingly, Dak Lak pepper price is purchased at 179,000 VND/kg, an increase of 9,000 compared to yesterday's price. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) is currently at 176,000 VND/kg, an increase of 8,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today is recorded at a record price of 180,000 VND/kg, an increase of 9,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today increased by 7,000 VND. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it reached 176,000 VND/kg, an increase of 7,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices reached 176,000 VND/kg, an increase of 6,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices reached 169,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg.

Domestic pepper price on June 12 , 2024

Province, city	Unit	Trader purchase price	Increase/decrease compared to yesterday
Chu Se (Gia Lai)	VND/kg	176,000	+8,000
­­ Dak Lak	VND/kg	179,000	+9,000
Dak Nong	VND/kg	180,000	+7,000
Binh Phuoc	VND/kg	176,000	+7,000
Ba Ria - Vung Tau	VND/kg	176,000	+7000

In the world market, at the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at 6,451 USD/ton; the price of Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 at 8,500 USD/ton (up 13.23%); the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA remained at 4,900 USD/ton.

Muntok white pepper price is 7,425 USD/ton (up 0.38%); Malaysian ASTA white pepper price remains at 7,300 USD/ton.

Vietnamese black pepper prices remain high, trading at 6,500 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 6,700 USD/ton for 550 g/l (up 11.94%); white pepper price at 9,500 USD/ton (up 15.79%).

Pepper prices have maintained a strong upward trend for nearly two weeks, continuously setting new record highs. According to industry experts and pepper purchasing agents, the current "hot" increase is partly due to Chinese traders starting to buy pepper again after a long absence.

Although the purchasing level is not much, it still promotes the market to become more vibrant, especially in the context of scarce pepper supply and countries that use a lot of Vietnamese pepper have continuously increased purchases since the beginning of the year such as the US, EU...

In May 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports to China reached 3,137 tons, 4.8 times higher than the previous month and the highest level in 11 months.

Data from the Chinese Customs Administration shows that in the first four months of this year, the average pepper import price into the country reached $4,576 per ton, up 6.6% over the same period last year. Of which, Indonesia and Vietnam are the two largest pepper suppliers.

Notably, Indonesia's pepper market share in China's total imports fell to 50.7% in the first four months of this year, compared to 60.21% in the same period last year.

In contrast, Vietnam's pepper market share in China's total imports increased to 37.5%, compared to 32% in the first 4 months of 2023.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) said that in the first months of this year, China did not import much pepper, possibly because last year it imported nearly 60,000 tons and the amount of pepper purchased in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic was still there, causing excess inventory. However, since the beginning of the second quarter of 2024, China has shown signs of re-entering the market by purchasing white pepper and then black pepper.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-1362024-tiep-noi-da-tang-huong-den-ky-luc-moi-325818.html