Opportunities for the real estate market 2024
The report on real estate consumer index recently published by Batdongsan.com.vn shows that the real estate market sentiment index in the first half of 2024 increased by 3 points compared to the second half of 2023.
This survey is based on criteria such as market satisfaction, confidence that real estate prices will increase well in the future, home buying ability, assessment of the market situation, policies and interest rates. Notably, this is also the first increase in the past 2 years for these surveys, counting from the decline in the first half of 2022.
It is understandable that customer and investor confidence indexes believe in the real estate market next year because in the recent period, many positive signals have been recorded. Specifically, in the third quarter of 2023, liquidity has returned with many projects recording a large number of bookings, the supply of mid-range apartments - a type that partly meets actual demand - has also increased, lending interest rates are gradually decreasing and cash flow is gradually returning...
Sentiment index rebounds after four consecutive declines.
For that reason, in the survey of Batdongsan.com.vn, there were some criteria that increased significantly such as interest rate (increased from 20 to 28 points), market situation (increased from 26 to 30 points), future real estate price (increased from 14 to 16 points).
In addition, in the survey on real estate purchase demand, up to 65% of candidates said they would buy more real estate in the next year, an increase of 4% compared to the survey in the second half of 2023. Of which, up to 42% of respondents owned 2 properties, 38% owned 1 property and 11% were first-time home buyers. This shows that the demand for real estate investment in the coming year has increased again, although up to 46% of respondents said that real estate prices are quite high.
Demand for real estate investment in 2024 remains high.
With the recorded figures on the psychology and confidence of home buyers in the real estate market showing positive signals, this will be an opportunity for the 2024 market to develop and overcome the remaining difficulties in 2023.
Land will recover
According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan - Director of Batdongsan.com.vn in the Southern region, in 2023, the selling price of apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will not decrease even though the demand for this type of property is decreasing. Big data from Batdongsan.com.vn also shows that in November 2023, the level of interest in apartments decreased by 20% compared to February 2023.
However, the selling price of apartments in Hanoi in the fourth quarter of 2023 still increased from 6% to 9% compared to the first quarter of the year (depending on the segment). Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh City, the price of high-end apartments remained the same, while the price of mid-range and affordable apartments decreased slightly from 1% to 4%.
Apartment prices have not decreased, but people's ability to buy houses has increased thanks to flexible incentive policies from investors. According to the Real Estate Consumer Sentiment Report for the first half of 2024, up to 46% of respondents are satisfied with the current market situation because there are more good financial options.
Condominiums will continue to lead the market in meeting housing needs.
For townhouses, in 2023, this type has witnessed negative fluctuations such as the return of premises appearing frequently on major streets in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan explained that this situation stems from the decrease in townhouse business efficiency due to changes in user behavior and competition from shopping malls. Online shopping habits are becoming more and more popular, it is estimated that in 2023, the number of consumers shopping online increased by nearly 9% compared to last year. Meanwhile, townhouse rental prices remain high, especially in central areas and show no signs of adjustment.
As for land, according to statistics from this unit, although the number of loss-cutting listings has decreased in the last quarters of the year, the market has not yet recovered in terms of interest and liquidity. The demand for buying land in November 2023 decreased by 18% compared to February 2023. By the fourth quarter of 2023, up to 43% of surveyed brokers said that land transactions decreased sharply (more than 50%), 31% assessed that land transactions decreased from 10% to 50%.
Land is still facing difficulties due to many policy-related factors.
Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan assessed that in the coming time, the land market will continue to face difficulties. The Law on Real Estate Business (amended) effective from the beginning of 2025 tightens the subdivision and sale of land, which may cause the level of interest in land to continue to decline. The land price level will also be adjusted down, especially for large plots of land.
“In the long term, land prices may continue to increase and transactions will return. Because real estate prices depend on other factors such as infrastructure development, economic growth, and people's income. Meanwhile, land is a type that any member of the market can invest in due to the diversity of area, price, and region. In localities with economic growth rates, land in these areas will still grow sustainably,” Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan shared.
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