Slowing down in 2024
According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), in November 2024, in general, the production and sales trend tended to slow down, and decreased compared to October 2024 and the same period in 2023. Crude steel production reached 1.87 million tons, a slight increase of 1.8% compared to the previous month and an increase of 13% compared to the same period in November 2023.
Production of finished steel products of all kinds reached 2.471 million tons, down 5.2% compared to October 2024 (all steel products recorded a decrease, the most was KL galvanized steel and SPM with a decrease of 10.66%, only HRC hot-rolled coil had an insignificant increase), but increased by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2023 (growth of the metal-coated & color-coated steel industry was 11.4% and construction steel was 7.6%, while steel pipes decreased by 1%, HRC decreased by 1.3% and CRC decreased by 26.7%).
In the 11 months of 2024, crude steel output reached more than 20.06 million tons, up 16% over the same period in 2023. Total crude steel consumption reached 19.57 million tons, of which exports reached 2.556 million tons, up sharply by 59%. Finished steel production reached 26.948 million tons, up 7.7%, with breakthroughs in products such as metal-coated and color-coated steel (up 25.7%), construction steel (up 11.7%), and steel pipes (up 4%).
Finished steel sales also reached 26.776 million tons, up 13%, with cold-rolled coil (CRC) leading the growth at 40.8%, followed by galvanized steel (32.8%) and construction steel (11.9%). Hot-rolled coil (HRC) alone recorded a slight decrease of 2.2%.
Finished steel exports in the first 11 months of 2024 reached 7.646 million tons, up 2.8% over the same period in 2023; Growth rates were steady in all products except hot-rolled coil, down 31.3%.
According to VSA, the world economy in the first 11 months of 2024 continues to face many risks, challenges, and uncertainties; fierce strategic competition, military conflicts, and increasing political instability; slow recovery of global growth; non-traditional security challenges have direct and multi-dimensional impacts on the development of many countries and regions.
The socio-economic situation in the first 11 months of 2024 of our country maintained a positive trend, with industries and fields achieving many important results contributing to the growth of the whole year.
Can increase from 8 - 10%
According to the 2025 Steel Industry Outlook Report, SSI Research believes that domestic demand may maintain stable growth in the coming time, while exports may slow down.
Domestic steel demand will increase by 10% in 2025, as the real estate market has recovered strongly in 2024 (the number of new apartments for sale has doubled compared to 2023).
Most importantly for the steel industry in 2025, the pressure from imported steel can be reduced thanks to protectionist measures. Steel imports into Vietnam in the first 11 months of 2024 increased sharply by 33% to 16.17 million tons, of which imports from China skyrocketed by 48.4% and accounted for 68% of total imports.
Galvanized steel imports accounted for 26.7% of domestic output and were equivalent to 15% of the industry's total production output in the first 10 months of 2024. HRC imports accounted for 75% of domestic output and were equivalent to 182% of the industry's total production output in the same period.
By 2025, competitive pressure is expected to ease if Vietnam can implement more protectionist measures. The Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an anti-dumping investigation into galvanized steel imported from China and South Korea in June, and HRC imported from China and India in July.
SSI Research experts believe that the final results of this investigation will be announced in mid-2025, but there may be interim measures introduced before then.
Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/thep-noi-dia-co-the-tang-tro-lai-trong-nam-2025.html
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