There is no denying that prolonged power outages reduce the quality of life, cause economic shocks and even trigger humanitarian crises. Solving the problem of power shortages will remain a “problem” for each region, country and individual.  

General situation

The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other organizations says that the world is witnessing a “deceleration in the pace of global electrification.” Accordingly, about 675 million people worldwide are without electricity, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, a halving in the past decade. Despite efforts and some progress, that is still a very high number. However, let’s leave the story of narrowing the energy access gap aside and focus on the issue of unstable electricity supply and rolling blackouts in some countries.

People in Liaoning province, China have to use phone flashlights amid rotating power outages. Photo: AP

China's economy is going through a difficult time as it faces a series of challenges, the most recent of which is the 2021 power shortage crisis. Since late September of that year, rolling power outages in China have spread to half the country. Not only have many factories had to cut production, but people's lives have also been affected, even threatening to slow down the recovery of the country's economy and put pressure on the global supply chain.

The cause of this crisis is primarily due to the sudden increase in electricity consumption in China, after the country controlled the epidemic and quickly restored production. However, investment in the fossil fuel sector for electricity generation has decreased. On the other hand, China's energy crisis is partly due to the country's drastic measures to cut emissions in an effort to green the economy. This is not the first time that China has had to save electricity on a large scale. Since 2000, the country has experienced at least three power shortage crises.

In particular, major shopping malls in the city of Chongqing can only operate between 16 and 21 hours. Neighboring Sichuan province has also ordered extended industrial power cuts. In Jiangsu province, most steel mills have closed and some cities have turned off street lights. In nearby Zhejiang province, about 160 power-hungry companies, including textile factories, have also been closed. Meanwhile, in Liaoning province in northern China, 14 cities have been ordered to implement emergency power cuts.

The shutdown of major Chinese petrochemical corporations due to power shortages has caused the price of basic polymers (chemicals widely used in modern technology) to increase by 10%. In particular, Yunnan, which is a province with large hydropower resources in China (accounting for 19% of the country's total capacity), has so far experienced three large-scale power outages after two power outages in September 2022, mainly due to a lack of local water supply. Currently, there is no timetable for power outages. In order to ensure the safety of power supply and to arrange reasonable and orderly power consumption, the province has proposed strict control measures, in the following order: "Safety as the first premise, staggered peaks, avoid peaks, then limit and finally cut off power".

Night scene in Mumbai, India on June 24, 2020. Photo: VNA

Another country with a billion people, India, is also not immune to the power cuts amid record heat and a surge in electricity demand in the summer. Last year, blackouts and rolling blackouts spread across more than half of India’s states. The country’s coal-fired power system could be further strained as the recent record-high electricity demand continues. Even after the 46-degree heatwave ends, Indian households and businesses are still facing frequent power outages as coal stocks at factories and fuel prices have dwindled since the conflict in Ukraine broke out. Recently, many eastern states have also experienced frequent widespread blackouts, especially at night. Meanwhile, Mumbai, India’s second-largest city, saw its average daily electricity consumption hit an all-time high earlier this month, forcing some districts to go on rolling blackouts. Earlier this June, the Nagaland State Electricity Department (India) said that they were forced to shed loads across the state due to a lack of water for hydroelectric plants to produce electricity.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh is also suffering its worst energy crisis in 10 years, with an estimated electricity shortage of 15% in early June, three times higher than in May. Power cuts due to severe heat are occurring regularly in Bangladesh, with unannounced outages lasting 10 to 12 hours. Bangladeshis are facing their worst power crisis since 2013. In all of 2022, the country had a total of 113 days of power cuts, but in the first five months of this year alone, Bangladesh was forced to cut off power for 114 days due to severe heat and difficulty paying for fuel imports amid declining foreign exchange reserves and the value of the local currency.

In Thailand, high temperatures have caused electricity demand to increase, putting the power system on alert. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) of Thailand said that the extreme heat caused the country's electricity demand to reach nearly 35,000MW in just one day. This is a record electricity consumption during the country's hot season and up to 6% higher than the same period in 2022.

Several areas in Thailand have experienced widespread power grid failures due to localized overloads. The heat has also dried up Thailand’s lakes, affecting production activities, including hydropower. Officials have urged farmers to consider not growing a second rice crop or growing other crops that use less water to ensure water supplies for other activities, including electricity generation.

Drought in Somalia. Photo: Africanews.com

For its part, South Africa is still struggling with a long, nationwide blackout, with the number of blackouts in South Africa in 2022 doubling compared to previous years and showing no signs of abating. A state of national disaster was declared by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in early February 2023. Forecasts from South African power company Eskom itself show that South African businesses and the country's 60 million people will be without power for at least another year. Eskom is responsible for the majority of South Africa's electricity. However, its coal-fired power plants are overloaded and have not been maintained for years. Last year, the country implemented its highest level of rolling blackouts, which saw South Africans suffer multiple power cuts a day, each lasting between two and four hours.

France is no exception. Once a leading exporter of electricity in Europe, France is now forced to import electricity from the UK, Germany and Spain due to a shortage of electricity. Once considered a nuclear power, becoming a world example with an electricity industry that emits little greenhouse gases, the hexagonal country now has to operate a coal-fired power plant again, even though the Paris government previously pledged to close all coal-fired power plants. In the context of low supply, high demand, and an overloaded national grid, causing widespread power outages, the French government was forced to introduce regional rotating power cuts in case electricity consumption reached an alarming level. According to France Info, 60% of the French population is affected by rotating power cuts. Power is cut in small areas, during peak hours on weekdays, between 8am and 1pm and between 6pm and 8pm, except on weekends and holidays.

People in the glamorous United States - the world's largest economy - also have to experience power outages and blackouts. Although the lights are on 99% of the time, sudden power outages still cost the US at least $150 billion a year, mostly due to aging power systems and natural disasters. According to an analysis, the US has more power outages than any other developed country. Research by Massoud Amin, an electrical and computer engineer at the University of Minnesota (USA), shows that people living in the upper Midwest of the US lose power for an average of 92 minutes a year, while the figure in Japan is only... 4 minutes. According to a comparison by the Galvin Electricity Initiative, the average US electricity customer has to "live in the dark" more than 8 other industrialized countries.

Will the "electric fever" continue?

A significant barrier to the energy sector in the near future is the expected surge in global electricity demand, according to the IEA. Specifically, global electricity demand is forecast to increase by 5,900 TWh, from 24,700 TWh in 2021 and increase by more than 7,000 TWh in 2030. In advanced economies, the biggest driver of growth on the demand side is from transportation. In developing economies, the drivers include population growth and increased cooling demand.

What does the world do to save electricity? Illustration: Vir.com

In the context of countries increasingly focusing on developing the electricity sector to meet growth needs, while promoting the exploitation of cleaner sources, the energy crisis as well as the impact of persistent climate change can cause the risk of power shortages to not only occur in a few places but can be widespread, anywhere.

For example, due to unusually hot weather, ensuring electricity supply in many countries, including Japan, China, etc. this summer is facing many challenges. Recently, the Japanese government asked households and businesses in the Tokyo area to save electricity in July and August. The reserve power supply ratio in the Tokyo metropolitan area in July may drop to 3.1%, slightly higher than the lowest level to maintain stable supply, if the once-in-a-decade heatwave covers the area managed by Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco).

Meanwhile, the threat of power shortages in China has been evident since May, with electricity consumption hitting a record high since the start of the year in southern provinces. Last year, China’s heatwave – the worst in 61 years – threatened the power supply for millions of people, especially in the southwestern and southern provinces. Meteorologists predict the scorching temperatures will continue this year. Experts warn that more droughts could jeopardize hydropower generation, which is expected to account for 15.3% of China’s electricity supply in 2022.

In the United States, the risk of power shortages is growing as conventional power plants are retiring faster than they can be replaced with renewable energy or storage. The grid is under pressure as the United States makes a historic transition from conventional power plants that burn coal and natural gas to cleaner forms of energy, such as wind and solar. Aging nuclear power plants are scheduled to retire in many parts of the country. The U.S. grid is facing the risk of power shortages due to supply constraints and other challenges. Large-scale, rolling blackouts have become more frequent over the past 20 years, in part due to aging grids and extreme weather events. And the rise of electric vehicles could add to the demand for electricity in the coming years, putting further strain on the system.

Bangladesh's power ministry has also warned that the heatwave is continuing and the peak season from July to October is approaching, leaving 170 million people without power in the coming days. A Reuters analysis found that the erratic weather and difficulty paying for fuel imports amid dwindling foreign exchange reserves and a depreciating currency have left the country facing its worst power crisis since 2013.

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Lesson 2: The world solves the "problem" of saving electricity - From the government to the people

MINH ANH (synthesis)