The world situation in 2025 is forecast to continue to be complex, unpredictable, and contradictory, with a mixture of hope and anxiety around focal points in many areas. What lies behind that multidimensional surface?
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| The world in 2025 is still filled with anxiety mixed with hope. (Source: Getty Images) |
Cooling down, heating up
The Ukraine and Middle East hotspots have not seen a clear way out but are showing signs of cooling down. The conflict has been going on for quite a long time, the warring parties are all tired or the advantage is gradually tilting to one side. International pressure is increasing, both internally and externally. Major countries, especially the US, are adjusting their strategies in the face of the new situation. At the same time, they are the factors that greatly influence the situation.
The shadow continues to hang over South Korean politics with unpredictable moves, involving law enforcement agencies and a part of the military, attracting many people to participate. The Taiwan Strait, the East Sea, Africa… still have potential instability.
The Panama Canal is in turmoil, the frozen land of Greenland is at risk of “thawing” after President Donald Trump’s announcement. Anything can be bought with a lot of money and with great pressure! “Buying” Greenland is not only aimed at the hidden resource but also a new form of territorial ownership with “soft and hard power”, opening the way to control the Arctic.
The new hotspots are unlikely to erupt into military conflicts or regional wars, but they do have the potential to heat up. In particular, they create a very dangerous new precedent and redraw the world political map!
Fragmentation and linkage, economic cooperation
Competition for the number one position between the US and China is inevitable when the ambition of a great power is not yet in place with a mechanism strong enough to control it. Economic sanctions between the US and China, the West and Russia continue to increase in both quantity and quality. The fragmentation of global supply chains and production is deepening.
On the other hand, economic cooperation and linkage between BRICS and its partners, between China and Africa, in the Southern Hemisphere, the ASEAN sub-region, etc. are vibrant and effective, and are global bright spots. If the fragmentation of the world is mainly due to the ambitions, politicization, and economic weaponization of some major countries, then the trend of regional and sub-regional cooperation and linkage is an inevitable need for development, aiming to find balance and reduce dependence. These two trends continue to exist.
Technology explosion, intertwined opportunities and challenges
New technologies are exploding, especially artificial intelligence (AI), digital technology, quantum technology, space technology, etc., and their integration has become the driving force for development, creating unprecedented achievements. The great powers possess it, turn it into a dominant treasure, increase protection, compete fiercely, fragment resources and territories, and increase inequality in enjoying the scientific and technological achievements of humanity.
AI enhances human capabilities to new heights, but it can also exacerbate unemployment, making a segment dependent on technology. In particular, allowing AI to dominate decision-making in the military sector, without a monitoring mechanism, risks leading to catastrophic consequences for humans.
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| Cars are stuck in floodwaters as Tropical Storm Helene hits Boone , North Carolina, U.S., September 27, 2024. (Source: Reuters) |
Natural disasters deepen inequality
In 2025, the abnormal trend of climate change continues with unwanted records. The flow of people fleeing due to natural and man-made disasters is unpredictable. No country can live in an oasis, standing outside all natural disasters and catastrophes. In underdeveloped countries, the impact of natural disasters and catastrophes is even more severe. Clean energy, green economy, and the agreement to contribute more to climate change response at COP29 are not enough to fill the "gap".
The greater the challenge, the more determined, united, and united the global effort should be to deal with it. However, some rich countries, which benefit from resources and are the main cause of greenhouse gases, have contributed disproportionately, and even unilaterally withdrawn from the common mechanism. The dispersion and fragmentation of resources further aggravate the severe impacts of natural disasters, catastrophes, and inequality in our “common home”.
Multipolarity, multilateralism and the hope of a new beginning
The intertwined and contradictory shifts around focal points in many fields are concrete manifestations of the friction between unipolarity and multipolarity, unilateralism and multilateralism. Geopolitical confrontation, competition for power, dominant roles and strategic interests among major countries are the causes of all causes.
The rift in interests between the US and its European allies will become even clearer after January 20. There is a risk of a new clash between Washington, Copenhagen and Ottawa, where unilateralism, power, pressure, and great power interests override international law. Meanwhile, the relevant alliances and allies seem to be “silent”.
The old world order is being maintained by some major countries, while the new order is not yet fully formed but is still an irreversible trend. According to the announcement on January 7 of the group of leading emerging economies in the world (BRICS), Indonesia became the 10th member. Along with that are 8 partner countries and dozens of countries on the continents wishing to join BRICS. The change in quantity is transformed into a new quality.
The role and influence of the G7 is declining, and the G20 is finding it difficult to reach consensus due to differences between member groups. In contrast, the BRICS is constantly growing, increasingly showing itself to be a new force capable of participating in the global political, economic and trade game. Along with that, the voices of the Southern Hemisphere countries are becoming more unified and have more weight in many international issues.
The strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere bloc, the attraction of BRICS is not identical with choosing sides, overthrowing the dominance of the USD but aiming to reduce dependence, seek fairness, based on the principles of the United Nations Charter and international law.
These are vivid manifestations of the increasingly clear trend of multipolarity and multilateralism. Contrary to natural laws, social movement must go through human activities. The struggle is complex, even with twists and turns, but it will be realized.
The year 2025 is expected to be a new beginning of connection, cooperation, and multipolarization. The belief is expressed through the message of UN Secretary General Antonyo Guteress, leaders of many countries in the world, and in the midst of interwoven, multidimensional shifts.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/the-gioi-2025-nam-cua-nhung-dich-chuyen-dan-xen-da-chieu-lo-au-va-hy-vong-300743.html
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