| Coffee price forecast August 17, 2024: Continuing the upward trend, is coffee expected to continue to rise? Coffee price forecast August 18, 2024: Domestically, the upward trend continues, will Robusta continue to increase dramatically? |
Coffee prices are forecast to continue to increase in the domestic market on August 19, 2024. In July, Vietnam's average coffee export price reached a record of 4,951 USD/ton, up 75.1% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, by the end of the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam had exported more than 1.3 million tons of coffee, out of a total output of about 1.47 million tons in the current crop year.
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will continue to decline in the remaining months of the third quarter due to low supply. Only in October, when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins, will coffee supply increase again.
In the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tons - the lowest level in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year according to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is likely to continue to decrease due to unfavorable weather factors.
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| Coffee price forecast August 19, 2024: Slight increase at the end of the week is not enough to push up domestic coffee prices, why? |
In the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October last year to July this year), Vietnam's coffee exports reached more than 1.3 million tons, equivalent to 90% of the current crop year's output and down 12.4% over the same period last crop year.
Excluding the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 130,000 tons of coffee left to export in the remaining 2 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from August to the end of September). This year's reduced output combined with low inventory carried over from the previous year are the main reasons why Vietnam's coffee exports have continuously decreased in the past 6 months.
In the domestic market, today's coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on August 18, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices increased slightly by 300 VND/kg compared to yesterday, ranging from 117,300 to 118,100 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 117,500 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces is 118,100 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 118,000 VND, an increase of 300 VND/kg, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 117,900 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province, coffee is purchased at 118,000 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 118,100 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 117,300 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg.
Coffee price today, August 18, in Dak Lak province was purchased at about 118,100 VND/kg; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at about 118,000 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 118,000 VND/kg.
Coffee price list today 8/18/2024
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Updated world coffee prices at 8:30 p.m. on August 18, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,665 USD/ton, up 94 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
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| Coffee price today August 18, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com |
The November 2024 delivery term is 4,45210 USD/ton, up 74 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 4,278 USD/ton, up 74 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,115 USD/ton, up 73 USD.
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| Coffee price today August 18, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com |
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on August 18, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 239.15 - 245.45 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 245.45 cents/lb; up 5.55 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 244.10 cents/lb, up 6.05 cents/lb; the March 2025 delivery period is 241.60 cents/lb, up 5.90 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 239.15 cents/lb, up 5.70 cents/lb.
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| Coffee price today August 18, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on August 18, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 304.00 USD/ton, up 0.20%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 297.85 USD/ton, down 0.18%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 296.55 USD/ton, up 2.70% and the delivery period for May 2025 is 292.15 USD/ton, up 2.65%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
At the end of the week, the report on certified graded Arabica coffee stocks held on the New York market is said to have increased by 11,288 bags to 836,921 bags.
The Real continued to hold its ground after rising to a high of 5.475 against the USD, also contributing to coffee prices as they closed the week on a firm note.
The focus of the story last week that pushed coffee futures to their biggest weekly gain in more than a month in New York was supply concerns in top producer Brazil.
The market has risen about 5% this week after farmers in Brazil reported some scattered cases of frost late last week.
While this year’s harvest in Brazil is largely complete, traders will now be watching the weather during the flowering period over the next two months. That is seen as an early indicator of the upcoming crop’s yield, and farmers are concerned that early flowering could harm next season, as some regions faced dry and hot weather earlier this year.
*Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.
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