Oscar betting markets are increasingly popular for assessing the frontrunners, with odds fluctuating based on industry awards, expert opinion and reception from various film critics.
While many people turn to sports betting on big events like the Super Bowl, legal betting on awards shows like the Oscars is no longer uncommon.
Scene from the movie Anora
This year, The Hollywood Reporter used statistical models and industry data to provide probabilities for each nominated film and artist's chances of winning. OddsChecker found that the odds for each category were determined by expert analysis and betting trends.
According to The Hollywood Reporter's prediction, among the 10 nominated films, Anora emerged as the brightest candidate for Best Picture with a 52% chance of winning. The remaining films are Conclave (15.2%), Emilia Pérez (8.9%), The Brutalist (8.8%), A Complete Unknown (5.5%), Wicked (2.8%), The Substance (2.4%), Nickel Boys (1.7%), Dune: Part Two (1.4%) and I'm Still Here (1.3%).
Meanwhile, betfair.com offers the following odds: Anora (1/1.5, meaning bet 1 to win 1.5), Conclave (1/3.5), The Brutalist (1/7), A Complete Unknown (1/26), Wicked (1/51), Emilia Pérez (1/51), Dune: Part Two (1/101), The Substance (1/101), Nickel Boys (1/101) and I'm Still Here (1/101).
For Best Director, the odds of winning are: Sean Baker ( Anora ) – 35.7%, Brady Corbet ( The Brutalist ) – 30.4%, Jacques Audiart ( Emilia Pérez ) – 15.7%, Coralie Fargeat ( The Substance ) – 9.8%, James Mangold ( A Complete Unknown ) – 8.4%.
In the Best Actor/Actress categories, Adrien Brody ( The Brutalist ) and Demi Moore ( The Substance ) stand out with a 68.5% and 52.2% chance of winning.
Demi Moore in The Substance
Adrien Brody ( The Brutalist ) has led the Best Actor race all season, but Timothée Chalamet's ( A Complete Unknown ) surprise SAG win has cast some doubt on Brody. Chalamet's portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, along with his appearance in Dune: Part Two , could give him an edge with Academy voters. Demi Moore ( The Substance ) is considered the frontrunner after winning several major awards, including the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. Mikey Madison ( Anora ) is her strongest contender after winning Best Actress at the BAFTAs.
In the Best Supporting Actor/Actress categories, Kieran Culkin ( A Real Pain ) and Zoe Saldana ( Emilia Pérez ) scored 87.7% and 89.4%, respectively.
Bet365.com has a slightly different assessment, predicting that Conclave is likely to win Best Picture (1/7 odds, or bet 1 to win 7), Nicole Kidman will win Best Actress (1/10), Ralph Fiennes will win Best Actor (4/9). The odds announced by this site are: Anora (3/18, or bet 3 to win 18), The Brutalist (4/7), Wicked (2/9), Emilia Pérez (1/6), Conclave (1/7), The Substance (1/8), Dune: Part Two (1/9), A Complete Unknown (1/14), Nickel Boys (1/16), and I'm Still Here (1/20).
The 2025 Oscar Awards ceremony took place at the Dolby Theater, Los Angeles on the morning of March 3 (Vietnam time).
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/soi-dong-thi-truong-ca-cuoc-oscar-2025-185250302141400996.htm
Comment (0)