Domestic gasoline prices at tomorrow's adjustment session (August 15) are forecast to increase after 5 consecutive decreases.
Tomorrow (August 15) is the retail price management period. gasoline According to Decree 80/2023 amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95 and Decree 83 of the Government on petroleum trading.
In the world market, world oil prices last week recorded the first weekly increase after 4 consecutive weeks of decline. Overall, last week, Brent oil prices increased by more than 3.5%, while WTI oil prices increased by more than 4%.
This week, after a sharp increase in the first trading session of the week, world oil prices reversed and decreased in the trading session on August 13.
At the beginning of the trading session on August 14, world oil prices increased slightly. According to data from Oilprice, at 7:49 a.m. on August 14 (Vietnam time), Brent oil was traded at 81.12 USD/barrel, up 0.53% compared to the previous session. Meanwhile, WTI oil was at 78.86 USD/barrel, up 0.65% compared to the previous session.
In the Singapore market, in the recent period, the average price of finished gasoline in this market increased slightly compared to the previous period.
If the conflict in the Middle East spreads, the US could impose sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports, which could impact global crude oil supplies and support oil prices, said Bob Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho Bank in New York.
Sharing this view, Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades, said that in the short term, oil prices will benefit from increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about a potential conflict that could disrupt output in the world's key oil-producing region and reduce global oil supplies.
Last week, three Federal Reserve officials said inflation was cooling enough for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates as early as next month. Rate cuts tend to spur economic activity, which increases the use of energy sources like oil.
In addition, world oil prices were also supported when consumer prices in China, the world's largest oil importer, increased faster than expected in July 2024.
Based on the developments in world oil prices, leaders of some oil trading enterprises commented that domestic oil prices will be adjusted up in the management period tomorrow (August 15). If the management agency does not affect the Oil Price Stabilization Fund, domestic oil prices may increase by 320-420 VND/liter. Diesel prices are expected to increase by 250-320 VND/liter.
If the above forecast is correct, domestic gasoline prices will record their first increase after five consecutive decreases.
In another development, the Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that in the operating period tomorrow, August 15, retail gasoline prices are forecast to decrease slightly by 0.2-0.3%, bringing the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline to VND20,666/liter and RON 95-III gasoline to VND21,600/liter; fuel oil prices will increase slightly by 0.7% to VND16,134/kg, while diesel and kerosene are forecast to decrease slightly by 0.1% to VND19,121/liter and VND19,387/liter, respectively.
VPI inter-ministerial forecast Finance- Industry and Trade This period will continue to not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.
In the most recent petrol price adjustment period (August 8), the prices of all types of petrol and oil have decreased sharply.
Specifically, the price of E5 gasoline decreased by 900 VND/liter, the selling price is 20,710 VND/liter. The price of RON 95 gasoline decreased by 930 VND/liter, the selling price is 21,670 VND/liter.
Similarly, diesel price was also adjusted down by 730 VND/liter, selling price at 19,140 VND/liter. Kerosene price decreased by 680 VND/liter, selling price at 19,410 VND/liter.
In this management period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance did not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for E5RON92 gasoline, RON95 gasoline, diesel oil, kerosene, and mazut oil.
Since the beginning of 2024, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 31 adjustment sessions, including 15 decrease sessions, 14 increase sessions and 3 opposite sessions.
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