The West's reluctance to provide much-needed arms aid to Ukraine could put the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a "frozen" state.
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| British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hugs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Aylesbury, England, on May 15. (Source: Rishi Sunak's Twitter) |
With what it has, Ukraine is doing well.
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s nuclear arsenal has been the single biggest obstacle to supplying Ukraine with much-needed defensive weapons. Although more weapons systems are being delivered to Ukraine, many of these shipments are being made only tentatively and reluctantly.
In some cases, countries have used excuses to slow down their response to Kiev’s requests. For example, the parties were told it would take 18 months to train Ukrainian soldiers to use F-16s, when in reality this could be achieved in four months.
Similar barriers are also placed on tanks and long-range artillery, such as the HIMARS system.
However, Russia has not yet used nuclear weapons, despite having deployed them before. Some analysts believe that President Putin is preparing for a nuclear option, perhaps a tactical or non-strategic nuclear strike against Ukraine.
But there is also an argument that Moscow is struggling not only to maintain a deterrent, but also to launch a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine, an option that would only anger both Kiev and its allies and strengthen their resistance.
In addition, a nuclear campaign may now face increased tactical and operational risks that may even make it unthinkable.
In early May, a MIM-104 “Patriot” air defense battery for the first time shot down a KH-47M2 Kinzhal, an advanced, maneuverable air-launched ballistic missile that Russia claims is an unstoppable hypersonic weapon, invulnerable to US missile defenses.
The result shocked the Russian government. It showed that the Patriot missiles that Ukraine possesses could also intercept and shoot down Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Fabian Hoffman, an international relations expert at the University of Oslo (Norway), said that Kiev's ability to intercept missiles in such a high-intensity, coordinated, and multi-dimensional attack shows that even if Russia equipped its missiles with tactical nuclear warheads, there is a high possibility that they would not hit their targets.
Observers commented that, given this situation, Moscow now has more problems in "wielding" its supposedly invulnerable nuclear weapons against enemy missile and/or missile defense systems.
Russian bombers currently based in Belarus would also be vulnerable to such interceptions, thereby reducing their effectiveness in threatening Kiev or NATO.
These developments seriously undermine the argument for restraint in supporting Ukraine.
Clearly, by providing Ukraine with land, sea and air weapons, as well as the necessary financial resources, the West can strengthen both its conventional and nuclear deterrent capabilities. Doing so would not only repel Moscow’s continued attempts to use nuclear weapons as a “psychological weapon,” but would also contribute to shortening the conflict.
"The Frozen Conflict"
Recent reports indicate that many officials believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could become a “frozen conflict” like the situation on the Korean Peninsula. If the West continues to delay providing weapons to Ukraine because of concerns about Russia, this could very well lead to this scenario. Sending F-16s and the weapons Ukraine needs could change the course of the conflict and benefit the United States and the West.
In an interview with European media on May 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the country's army still needs some types of weapons aid in batches. Mr. Zelensky especially emphasized that the Ukrainian army needs more armored vehicles, and stressed that Kiev is very eager to use weapons provided by the West.
In recent months, media reports have been rife that Ukraine is planning a potential counterattack against Russian forces. Some say Kiev has stockpiled troops in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Many sources also predicted the start of the counteroffensive, but according to officials, Kiev's counteroffensive was postponed several times due to slow deliveries of Western equipment, bad weather and heavy losses suffered by the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut.
Ukraine has long called on donors to send more advanced weapons, arguing they are needed to help it gain an edge over Russia.
The Ukrainian government has also urged Western countries to provide F-16 fighter jets to supplement its increasingly depleted fleet of Soviet-made fighter jets. However, Kiev has so far failed to get its wish.
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