Trump's removal from office casts shadow over US politics

The ruling to remove Trump's name from the ballot in Colorado will force the US Supreme Court to intervene, which could cause many consequences and disagreements in US politics.

The Colorado Supreme Court ruled on December 19 to remove former President Donald Trump from the state's primary ballot, saying he was involved in the Capitol Hill riots and therefore ineligible to hold the presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.

The 14th Amendment was passed after five years of the American Civil War (1861-1865), to prevent those who had sworn allegiance to the Constitution but had "engaged in rebellion or insurrection" against the country from running for office again. "President Trump has incited and encouraged the use of force and lawless conduct to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power," the Colorado court explained in its ruling.

However, observers say this decision could disrupt the primary elections in many states where Mr. Trump is being prosecuted for allegedly "overturning" the 2020 election, as well as the national election that will take place in November 2024.

Mr. Trump's spokesman denounced the Colorado ruling as "completely wrong" and announced that he would appeal to the federal Supreme Court, asking for a reinterpretation of the 14th Amendment. In that context, the 9 Supreme Court justices will have to make a decision for the second time in more than two decades that can decide the outcome of the presidential election.

Former US President Donald Trump at a court hearing in New York on November 6. Photo: AFP

The last time a Supreme Court ruling directly affected a U.S. election was in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush and Democratic Vice President Al Gore contested the 14th Amendment, and Republicans sought to protect their candidates on the path to the White House.

In the 2000 presidential election, Florida became the deciding state between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Mr. Gore was initially predicted to win Florida, but he called Bush to congratulate him when he saw his opponent leading by tens of thousands of votes mid-count. Less than an hour later, Gore retracted his concession when updated results showed the gap between the two had narrowed significantly.

With the vote count so close, Florida recounted the votes of both candidates according to the correct procedure. Controversy broke out when the election commission discovered many erroneous ballots as well as the risk of machine malfunction, prompting the Florida Supreme Court to order a manual count of all ballots, which could delay the final results for many days.

Republicans took the case to the federal Supreme Court, seeking an interpretation of the "equal protection" principle in the 14th Amendment. They argued that the standard the Florida Supreme Court applied to its state alone was unfair to other states and should invalidate the recount ruling.

More than a month after the election, with 5 judges in favor and 4 judges opposed, the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of candidate Bush, preventing Florida from manually recounting the votes. Al Gore did not want to prolong the chaos of American politics, so he did not continue to appeal and declared defeat in Florida. Mr. Bush won by more electoral votes, although he lost about 6 million popular votes to Gore.

The Bush v. Gore case has affected the credibility of the Supreme Court, as the justices' decisions directly affect the results of presidential elections. Opponents argue that recounts are the function of state election agencies, and therefore the Supreme Court has misbehaved by interfering with state-level decisions.

More than 20 years later, the US Supreme Court is once again facing the need to intervene in the election process. Observers are concerned that the court’s reputation will continue to be challenged, as American society is deeply polarized between two streams of public opinion supporting and opposing Mr. Trump.

Former US President Donald Trump speaks to supporters in Conroe, Texas in January 2022. Photo: Reuters

The ruling in Colorado, although only effective for the primary election to choose the Republican candidate to run for office, could also apply to the official election late next year, in case Mr. Trump becomes President Biden's opponent.

The ruling could also serve as a basis for a Georgia state court and a federal court in Washington to try Trump for election-rigging charges. The former US president has pleaded not guilty to the charges and the state and federal courts have yet to issue a final ruling.

Trump's legal team is trying to appeal to the Supreme Court, and is also trying to overturn the Colorado court's ruling to avoid it becoming a precedent in other states in lawsuits against him "inciting" to overturn the 2020 election.

However, some experts say the US Supreme Court has a stronger legal basis to intervene in the Colorado ruling this time than in the 2000 election dispute.

In the 2000 case, the Supreme Court had to consider whether it had the authority to intervene in Florida’s ruling on the ballot-counting process. This time, the Colorado court applied the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution to disqualify Mr. Trump, so the Supreme Court has full authority to handle and intervene, said Luke Sobota, a clerk for former Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist who arbitrated the dispute between Al Gore and George W. Bush.

"In the context of Mr. Trump facing many similar cases in other states, the Supreme Court needs to clarify whether the anti-insurrection clause cited by the Colorado court is appropriate or not, to prevent each state from interpreting this provision in a different way," said Sobota, now a key lawyer at the US international law firm Three Crowns.

Alexander Reinert, a law professor at Yeshiva University in New York, said that if the Supreme Court takes up the case, any ruling it makes would have profound implications for American politics.

If the justices rule in Trump’s favor, they could face questions about the credibility of America’s most powerful court. The Supreme Court is largely conservative, including three Trump appointees.

But if they rule against Trump, they will likely face a wave of anger from millions of his supporters. Trump has recently sought to stoke that anger, calling the Colorado court's decision a "witch hunt" and an "election interference plot."

Ted Olson, a lawyer who represented Mr. Bush in the 2000 Supreme Court case, said the justices should quickly accept Mr. Trump’s appeal. He argued that overturning the Colorado ruling was necessary for American politics to ensure fair elections, since only voters have the right to decide who is worthy.

"The Colorado ruling not only prevents voters from voting for Trump, but also prevents those who vote against the former president," Olson said.

Thanh Danh (According to WSJ, Politico )

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