These factors may affect market trends and developments in industry groups in the coming time. This is the assessment of Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VFS).
VFS has proposed two scenarios for the stock market in January. Specifically, in scenario 1, the VN-Index will fluctuate between 1,250 and 1,300 points. This securities company recommends that investors can trade short-term according to the fluctuation range; buy at the lower range and take profit when the price touches the upper range, do not chase buying. In scenario 2, the VN-Index exceeds 1,300 points, VFS recommends that investors wait for corrective developments to re-test this score area to find a disbursement point.
Experts from Saigon - Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS) said that last week (from December 30, 2024 to January 3, 2025), VN-Index traded less positively, especially in the first two trading sessions of 2025, when the index was under strong correction pressure.
VN-Index failed to maintain the strong support zone around 1,260 points, corresponding to the average price of 200 sessions. At the end of the trading week from December 30, 2024 to January 3, 2025, VN-Index decreased by 1.61% to 1,254.59 points, below the average price zone of 200 sessions and above 1,250 points, corresponding to the highest price zone in 2023.
Liquidity decreased in the first sessions of the week and increased sharply in the last session of the week, showing sudden strong adjustment pressure in many groups and stock codes.
The market is divided with green and red intertwined and stocks fluctuated narrowly. The adjustment pressure is concentrated in the finance, insurance, and real estate groups, while green and red intertwine in the oil and gas, fertilizer groups...
SHS commented on the short-term trend, VN-Index adjusted, accumulating below the resistance zone of 1,265 points, above the support zone around 1,250 points. The medium-term trend of VN-Index continues to maintain in a wide accumulation channel in the 1,200 - 1,300 point zone, with the equilibrium price zone around 1,250 points. Very strong resistance is the price zone of 1,300 points, this is the peak zone of March-July 2024 and September-October 2024.
According to SHS, the market started 2025 with high expectations after two consecutive years of growth in 2023 and 2024 with increases of 12.2% and 12.1%. In 2025, SHS expects the VN-Index to continue to accumulate within a narrow range in the price range of 1,200 - 1,300 points during the first one to two months of the year.
The market may improve in late Q1/2025 and early Q2/2025. VN-Index in 2025 is expected to increase in price by 10 - 12% compared to 2024, with an expected price range of 1,400 - 1,410 points.
In 2024, banking is an industry group with positive developments, good price increases with strong liquidity increase. Many prominent codes such as LPB increased by 31.8%, TCB increased by 59.9%, HDB increased by 56.9%, CTG increased by 39.5%...
SHS recognizes that the banking industry is considered the "lifeblood" and driving force supporting economic growth, with credit growth of 13-15% in recent years.
In 2025, the State Bank also plans to increase credit growth by 16%, along with capital increase plans of major banks, which will be a good growth driver for the banking group. This is still a good investment allocation option in 2025.
“Investors should maintain a reasonable proportion, consider selectively disbursing stocks with good fundamentals, expecting continued growth. Investment targets should be on leading stocks with good fundamentals,” SHS recommended.
According to experts from Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI), the market ended the transition week between the old year 2024 and the new year 2025 not very smoothly. Although there were only 4 trading sessions last week, the VN-Index lost more than 20 points; of which 3 sessions decreased and only 1 session ended in green.
The main highlight of the past week was the lack of liquidity. Weak demand caused selling pressure to almost completely overwhelm and as a result, the market plummeted sharply in the last session of the week.
The tug-of-war was broken when sellers lost patience, leading large-cap stocks and a series of banking stocks put great pressure on the market, causing the index to plummet.
The VN30-Index fell more than 26 points last week, with pressure from large-cap stocks losing a lot of points, making it difficult for mid- and small-cap stocks to go against the trend. Closing the trading week from December 30, 2024 to January 3, 2025, the VN-Index was at 1,254.59 points, down 20.55 points.
Caution caused liquidity to plummet last week. Market order matching liquidity was only equivalent to 63.8% of the average level of 20 trading weeks. Accumulated to the end of the trading week, the average trading liquidity on the HOSE floor reached 459 million shares (down 22.14% compared to the previous week), equivalent to VND 11,883 billion, down nearly 20% in trading value.
Up to 20/21 industry groups of stocks decreased last week. Putting great pressure on the market and trading sentiment last week were industry groups such as: Insurance decreased by 4.12%, consumer goods decreased by 3.8%, securities decreased by 3.41%, seafood decreased by 3.09%... On the contrary, the group of plastic stocks increased by 1%, the only industry group that successfully reversed the trend.
Foreign investors net sold 771 billion VND on HOSE. The focus of foreign investors' net selling last week was large-cap stocks such as: FPT (453 billion VND), VCB (158 billion VND), CTG (137 billion VND)...
CSI's market view for next week is that the uptrend is likely to have been reversed. At present, the recommended buy positions of this securities company at the support level of 1,260 points are starting to face a level of risk, so investors should be cautious and limit additional purchases.
Although the matched volume of the last session of the week exceeded the 20-session average, it is not yet an alarming signal as it is still lower than the two previous explosive sessions. Therefore, investors do not need to rush to sell off after the sharp decline last weekend and should only gradually sell and reduce the proportion of stocks that violate the risk management threshold when the market has bad developments in the coming sessions.
The correction could bring the VN-Index to the support zone around 1,248 points in the next session, CSI said. In fact, the Vietnamese stock market fell in the context of the world stock market going down last week.
US stocks in downtrend
Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.48%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.51% and the Dow Jones fell 0.6%.
Considering the weekend session alone (January 3), the Dow Jones index increased 0.8% to 42,732.13 points; the S&P 500 index increased 1.26% to 5,942.47 points; the Nasdaq Composite index increased 1.77% to 19,621.68 points.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.29 percent to 108.90 on the week, but was on track for a fifth straight weekly gain after hitting a two-year high of 109.54 in the previous session.
The dollar is expected to rise by the end of 2024 as investors bet that President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost growth and inflation, leading to fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and higher US government bond yields, while central banks in Europe are expected to continue cutting interest rates.
The Fed's December 2024 policy statement prompted investors to revise down their forecasts for the number and size of rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said policy rates should stay high until there is more certainty that inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target.
Previously, in the first trading session of the New Year (January 2), US stocks continued their downward trend since the end of 2024, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recording their fifth consecutive decline, the longest losing streak since April 2024.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/nhung-yeu-to-tac-dong-toi-thi-truong-chung-khoan-dau-nam-2025/20250106094051216
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