Demand and rental prices of industrial real estate will increase sharply

Công LuậnCông Luận05/01/2024


Many industrial parks have been filled.

According to a report by Cushman & Wakefield, the leasing activities of ready-built factories and warehouses in the South have become more vibrant, with absorption rates 2.4 times and 6.7 times higher than the previous quarter, respectively. This unit also stated that the thirst for factory and warehouse supply will become increasingly fierce. This is demonstrated by the fact that many industrial parks and warehouses in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are in a state of being filled.

The reason is due to the increasingly strong development of trade, with the need for large warehouse rental areas to store many items and install support systems for picking and packaging. At the same time, it partly comes from the trend of shifting part of production from China to Vietnam.

In addition, Vietnam is becoming a destination for many businesses in the manufacturing sector as well as the logistics and factory leasing sector. Many businesses when investing in the Vietnamese market choose to rent existing factories instead of building new factories to shorten the time.

Demand and rental prices for industrial real estate will increase sharply in the near future. Figure 1

Demand for industrial real estate is increasing in all types.

In addition, the demand for renting high-rise warehouse/factory space with an area of ​​1,000 - 5,000m2 is quite popular today. Enterprises renting factories with an area of ​​this group operate in the light industry, and have a need to find rental space near residential areas, where their potential customers are concentrated. This demand also promotes the proliferation of high-rise factories for rent.

In particular, the increasing demand for industrial real estate also comes from the growing FDI capital flow into Vietnam, along with large M&A deals and the shift in the global production supply chain.

Statistics from the Ministry of Planning and Investment also show that the total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam by the end of November reached nearly 29 billion USD, up 14.8% over the same period last year. Of which, investment capital through capital contribution and share purchase reached nearly 5.97 billion USD, up 46.4% over the same period in 2022.

According to S&P Global, although global M&A activities will slow down in 2023, Vietnam is enjoying many advantages from free trade agreements (FTAs), creating a diverse investment base, while increasing investment in manufacturing and industrial real estate.

Industrial real estate rental prices increase sharply

With data showing increasing demand, many experts believe that the development of industrial real estate, especially warehouses and factories, will make a breakthrough in the coming period. For that reason, industrial land rental prices are expected to increase at the level of 6-10%/year in both the North and the South in the next 2 years.

According to statistics, there are currently 397 industrial parks established nationwide; 292 industrial parks in operation with a total natural land area of ​​over 87,100 hectares, industrial land area of ​​over 58,700 hectares. The occupancy rate of industrial parks nationwide is about 80%. Of which, the Southern region has a rate of 85%, Binh Duong is the place with the largest industrial park area in the country with an occupancy rate of up to 95%.

Assessing the supply of industrial real estate, Cushman & Wakefield commented that in the near future, there will be a new supply of industrial land entering the market, expected to be about 5,700 hectares by 2026, mainly from Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An and Ba Ria - Vung Tau.

Demand and rental prices for industrial real estate will increase sharply in the near future. Figure 2

Warehouse real estate will be the type of interest in the coming period.

Currently, the demand for industrial land rental is quite high and is forecasted to continue to increase, specifically: The average industrial land rental price is recorded at more than 170 USD/m2/rental period, up 1% quarterly and up 8.5% annually. Some industrial parks have recorded price adjustments increasing from 3 to 5% over the same period.

Average ready-built factory rents remained stable both quarterly and year-on-year, reaching USD 4.7/m2/month. Most projects maintained rents amid competitive supply. High-demand locations such as Dong Nai and Ba Ria Vung Tau saw the highest year-on-year growth, in the range of 2.4–2.5%.

Meanwhile, ready-built warehouse rental prices in the Southern Key Economic Zone remained stable in the third quarter but increased by 2.2% year-on-year to USD 4.4/m2/month. Ready-built warehouse investors are still keeping rental prices stable to attract tenants in a competitive market.

According to CBRE Vietnam, the average industrial land rental price in tier 1 markets in the South reached 189 USD/m2/remaining term, continuing to increase slightly by 1% compared to the previous quarter and 13% higher than the same period last year. The market recorded large transactions from Chinese and Japanese enterprises with diverse industries such as: mechanics, chemicals, plastics, rubber, electronics.



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