Risk of power shortage if investment is slow, Ministry of Industry and Trade asks for opinions on revising power planning 8

Meeting electricity demand will face many challenges if the 8th electricity plan is not implemented soon - Photo: P.SON

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is asking ministries, state-owned energy corporations and relevant units to comment on the draft report to the Prime Minister on the assessment of the implementation status and policy to adjust the 8th power plan.

23 electricity projects, only 2 projects completed

According to the draft being prepared by the Ministry of Construction, the 8th power plan was approved by the Prime Minister on May 15, 2024. However, achieving the national commercial electricity growth rate in the period of 2021 - 2025 is difficult to achieve. Therefore, it is necessary to review and update the economic situation as a basis for determining load demand and orienting the development of power sources and grids in the coming period.

Regarding the implementation of power sources, the 8th power plan approved 23 gas-fired power projects with a capacity of 30,424 MW by 2030. However, to date, only one plant has been put into operation, the O Mon 1 thermal power plant; one project under construction, the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 plants, has reached 92% progress and is expected to be operational in May 2025.

Other gas power plants belonging to the Lot B gas power project chain, the Blue Whale gas power project chain, Hiep Phuoc 1, Ca Na, Nghi Son... or other projects are still carrying out procedures for selecting contractors, negotiating contracts, loan options or have not approved the feasibility study report, have not selected investors...

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, except for the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 projects expected to be operational in May 2025, the remaining projects will be difficult to complete before 2030 if there are no fundamental solutions to remove bottlenecks for LNG electricity...

This reality leads to the risk of a large power shortage in the 2026-2030 period, potentially posing a risk of insecurity in power supply, especially in the North. Therefore, it is necessary to have solutions to speed up project progress and replace projects at risk of being behind schedule.

With coal power, from now until 2030, 3,380 MW need to be put into operation and after 2030, it will not develop as committed. Meanwhile, 5 coal thermal power projects are behind schedule, facing difficulties in changing shareholders and arranging capital, including: Cong Thanh (600 MW), Nam Dinh I (1,200 MW), Quang Tri (1,320 MW), Vinh Tan III (1,980 MW) and Song Hau II (2,120 MW).

Power sources are in trouble

Not to mention, coal-fired thermal power faces many difficulties, not receiving consensus from localities as well as credit institutions. Requirements are increasingly stricter on environmental conditions and capital arrangements, so the feasibility of new coal-fired thermal power sources is not high.

For hydropower sources, the assessment department said that the total capacity can be developed according to the plan until 2030, which is 29,346, but it is not favorable because there is not much capacity left, and there may be risks when developing.

In addition, with renewable energy sources, especially wind power, it is also very difficult to achieve the planned capacity scale. Including onshore and nearshore wind power is 21,880 MW and offshore wind power is 6,000 MW. Solar power sources are also being reviewed, synthesized, evaluated and reviewed to suit reality.

Based on the above analysis, the draft of the Ministry of Industry and Trade clearly states: electricity supply in the years 2025 - 2030 is extremely difficult, with the potential risk of peak capacity shortage at the end of the dry season and the risk of power shortage if the power sources approved in the 8th power plan do not meet the progress according to the approved plan.

Therefore, in the draft being consulted, the Ministry of Industry and Trade recommends that the Prime Minister approve the policy to allow the adjustment of the 8th power plan in accordance with legal regulations.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/nguy-co-thieu-dien-neu-cham-dau-tu-bo-cong-thuong-xin-y-kien-sua-quy-hoach-dien-8-20240905192553418.htm