Supply has not improved, coffee exports will continue to benefit in price

Data from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) showed that at the end of the trading session on September 22 (morning of September 23, Vietnam time), Arabica coffee prices fell for the third consecutive session with a difference of 2.39% compared to the reference. Robusta prices also decreased slightly by 0.12%, marking the fourth red session of the week.

Vietnam's coffee export prices remain high

The global coffee market continues to focus on positive coffee supplies in 2023 in Brazil.

Coffee experts say Brazil’s exports will continue to increase through November, with August not being the month with the highest export volume. This leads to a more positive outlook for ensuring adequate coffee supplies.

Previously, the Brazilian Government Crop Supply Agency (CONAB) estimated that coffee production in 2023 in Brazil would increase by 6.8% compared to 2022 and would be the third highest level in 10 years. The main increase came from Arabica coffee with an increase of nearly 17% compared to the previous year.

Overall, despite the decline in recent days, coffee export prices remain high. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in the first 8 months of 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports reached nearly 1.2 million tons, worth nearly 3 billion USD, down 5.7% in volume but up 32.3% in value thanks to high selling prices.

Vietnam's largest coffee export market in the first 7 months was Germany, accounting for 13% of the market share, followed by Italy with 10%, the United States with 9%, Japan with 8%...

However, according to data released by the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in August 2023 fell to their lowest level since November 2022, with a volume of 84,647 tons, worth 258.5 million USD, down 22.3% in volume and 16% in value compared to the previous month. In return, the export price of this item increased to a new record of 3,054 USD/ton, nearly 700 USD/ton higher than the same period last year.

The Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will slow down in the third quarter of 2023 due to the lack of abundant supply. However, Vietnam's coffee exports will benefit in price as world consumer tastes tend to shift to robusta coffee.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development informed that the factor affecting coffee exports is that according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee output will be short by about 7.26 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year. Coffee supply is expected to be short in the short and medium term.

The Association of Indonesian Coffee Producers and Exporters (AEKI) also said that Indonesia's coffee output in 2023 is expected to decrease by about 20%, down to 9.6 million bags.

Indonesia's coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year is forecast to reach 9.7 million 60-kg bags, down from 11.85 million bags in the previous crop year and the lowest since the 2011-2012 crop year, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee output this year is estimated to decrease by 10-15% due to unfavorable weather. However, coffee exports from now until the end of the year are still positive due to increased demand, while supply has not improved. According to calculations from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the amount of coffee exported in 2023 will reach about 1.72 million tons, earning 4.2 billion USD.

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