The State Bank will have room to loosen monetary policy more in 2025.

Recently, at the online Data Talk with the topic "Economic recovery & Capital flow reversal trend", participating economic experts gave positive comments on the prospects of Vietnam's economy in the coming year 2025.

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, said that in 2025, the State Bank will have room to loosen fiscal policy more than before.

Experts say the State Bank will have plenty of room to loosen monetary policy in 2025 (Photo TL)

Specifically, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut trend in 2024 is relatively clear with two cuts in November and December, each by 25 basis points. In 2024 alone, interest rates have decreased by 100 basis points. In 2025, members of the Federal Open Market Committee expect interest rates to decrease by another 100 to 125 basis points.

Several central banks in Asia have also cut their policy rates accordingly. This is room for Vietnam to cut interest rates.

However, according to experts, interest rates will not decrease immediately in the fourth quarter of 2024 because this is the end of the year, credit demand in the quarter may increase while money supply is low. Currently, money supply has only increased by 12% compared to the same period. Therefore, if money supply does not increase sharply, interest rates at the end of the year may increase but not enter a downward trajectory.

Regarding credit growth activities, experts say that the current credit growth target is exceeding the actual needs of the economy.

Specifically, GDP growth of 7%, inflation at 3%, nominal GDP growth is 10%. This means that credit only needs to increase by 10%. Thus, the credit growth target of 15% will be oriented to promote growth, while helping to solve the financial difficulties of the economy.

In the long term, experts believe that the Fed's interest rate cut has helped reduce exchange rate pressure while inflation is no longer a concern. These are all opportunities to lower interest rates in 2025.

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/ngan-hang-nha-nuoc-se-co-du-dia-noi-long-chinh-sach-tien-te-nhieu-hon-trong-nam-2025-post317037.html