2024: GDP growth expected to reach 6.8%-7%

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, GDP growth for the whole year is expected to reach 6.8%-7%. The only important indicator forecast to fall short of the set target is GDP per capita (expected at 4,647 USD, the set target is 4,700-4,730 USD).

The Ministry of Planning and Investment has developed two scenarios for growth and inflation. Illustrative photo.

According to the draft report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment prepared for the National Assembly session, despite great difficulties and challenges, it is forecasted that Vietnam's socio-economic situation in 2024 can still achieve 14/15 legal targets.

Of which, GDP growth for the whole year is expected to reach 6.8% - 7%. The only important indicator forecast to not reach the set target is GDP per capita (expected at 4,647 USD, the set target is 4,700 - 4,730 USD). This is mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations. Specifically, the currencies of many countries, including Vietnam, have depreciated sharply against the USD since the beginning of the year. In case the US Federal Reserve (FED) reduces interest rates, domestic exchange rates stabilize and gradually decrease, and economic growth reaches 7%, this target can be achieved by the end of the year.

The outlines for the socio-economic picture in 2025 are also gradually becoming clear. Consulting the Government, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has proposed two scenarios for growth and inflation.

In scenario 1, the GDP growth rate in 2025 is forecasted to be around 6.5%-7%, inflation around 4%-4.5%. This forecast is based on the fact that the world situation continues to be complicated and unpredictable; global economic growth remains low; the global macro environment faces many risks. With this scenario, if the GDP growth in 2025 - the last year of implementing the 5-year socio-economic development plan 2021-2025 is at 6.5%-7%, then the average GDP growth over 5 years will be at 5.8%-6%.

In scenario 2, the forecast GDP growth rate in 2025 is about 7% - 7.5%, inflation is about 4.5%. This is a fairly high growth rate and can only be achieved if the world situation, major economies, and Vietnam's main trade and investment partners are expected to change more positively than forecast; industrial production, exports, foreign investment attraction, and Vietnamese enterprises will grow more strongly. The average GDP growth in 5 years will reach about 5.9% - 6.1%.

However, the Party Committee of the Ministry of Planning and Investment recommended choosing a growth target of about 6.5% - 7%, average inflation of about 4-4.5% in 2025.

To achieve the above-mentioned goals, 12 policy groups have been proposed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, including prioritizing growth promotion on the basis of maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances of the economy; promoting disbursement of public investment capital, attracting foreign investment, social resources; enhancing the role and promoting more effectively the resources of corporations, state-owned enterprises... Attracting investment in pioneering industrial sectors such as semiconductors, AI... is also considered an important growth lever.

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, during this 5-year plan, Vietnam's economy has suffered serious impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by global geopolitical fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, natural disasters, storms and floods... GDP growth in the 3 years of 2021-2023 will reach 2.58%, 8.12% and 5.05% respectively. In 2024, economic growth is expected to reach 6.8% - 7%, striving to achieve higher. In 2025, the expected target is 6.5% - 7%. With these results, the average growth target of 6.5% - 7% of the 5-year plan is unlikely to be achieved. But the most important thing is that the Government, businesses and every citizen are united in finding solutions and making efforts to implement solutions to bring the economy to the highest possible growth rate.

MR. PHUONG

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/nam-2024-tang-truong-gdp-du-kien-dat-68-7-post759174.html