Ukraine's use of long-range US missiles to attack military targets on Russian soil could push the conflict into a more intense phase of confrontation.
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| The ATACMS rocket launches from the launch pad. (Illustration photo: Pictorial Press Ltd/Alamy) |
On November 18, two anonymous senior US officials said that President Joe Biden had given the "green light" for Ukraine to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to attack military targets on Russian soil.
Breakthrough opportunity…
ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile manufactured by Lockheed Martin (USA) with a range of 180-300 km. Recently, Ukraine has used this weapon to attack Russian bases and air defense positions on the Crimean peninsula and several other areas in Ukraine. Now, the country's army can use ATACMS to threaten more than 200 important Russian military targets near the border, including airports, strategic weapons depots, training centers and important supply lines. The Kursk region, where Russia has deployed 50,000 regular troops and reserve units, could be the top target.
On November 19, Ukraine fired six ATCMS missiles at several Russian military targets, including an arms depot in the town of Karachev, Bryansk region. Moscow said its air defense system intercepted five and destroyed one.
This move by the US has three notable points.
First, as the conflict enters its 1,000th day, the US allowing Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to attack military targets on Russian territory shows that President Joe Biden wants to affirm that Washington continues to stand by Kiev, even as the White House is about to change hands next January.
Second, the US move is considered a response after US and South Korean intelligence reported the presence of a large number of North Korean soldiers at battlefields in Ukraine. Accordingly, in early November, Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that there were 8,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Ambassador to South Korea Dmytro Ponomarenko said that this number is now 15,000. However, according to Yonhap, Russia and North Korea continue to deny the accusation that Pyongyang sent troops to Russia to fight, saying that these accusations are baseless. On the other hand, Moscow has made it clear that even the scenario of North Korea sending soldiers to Russia does not violate international law.
Third, the move comes in the context of the US election ending with the victory of Donald Trump. This politician has repeatedly affirmed his willingness to end the conflict in Ukraine through negotiations with Russia, instead of continuing to provide weapons to Kiev as it is now. Therefore, after many previous refusals, Biden's "green light" for the Zelensky administration to use this long-range missile could help Ukraine step up its response to Russia, forcing the country to reduce military activities near the border. At that time, Kiev could use it as a springboard for further military campaigns or gain a better position in case it has to sit at the negotiating table with Moscow, once Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The Wall Street Journal (USA) commented that the deployment of ATACMS by the Ukrainian army is likely to force Russia to adjust its defensive and offensive tactics. Currently, Moscow still maintains a flexible strategy of deploying troops and supplies, with most of its equipment deployed only 30-50km from the front line. With this change, Russia can move back the deployment areas, giving Ukraine more space.
Has the situation changed?
Responding to the new decision of the US President, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented that the provision of ATACMS to Ukraine “is essentially a new spiral… escalating tensions to a qualitatively new level.” On November 19, in response, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine, adding a provision for nuclear deterrence even for conventional attacks.
In addition, many opinions have expressed skepticism about Mr. Biden's decision. First, they believe that the US President's "green light" move comes too late. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba affirmed that after months of lobbying, Russia has gained the necessary advantage. Similarly, expert Matthew Savill of the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed that the US's hesitation has created a tactical advantage for Russia.
In addition, with limited supplies, ATACMS will be difficult to use widely in Ukraine. Previously, US officials questioned whether the current ATACMS could make a difference, even if it was used effectively. Ms. Jennifer Kavanah, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities Agency (US), assessed: "To really impact Russia, Ukraine would need a large number of ATACMS, which it does not have and will not receive because of the limited US supply."
In particular, even when fully utilized, ATACMS cannot change the situation of the conflict. Expert Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council (USA) assessed that Russia has now moved many important military facilities out of ATACMS's range. Pentagon spokesman Major Charlie Dietz emphasized that ATACMS is not the answer to the Russian glide bomb problem that Ukraine is facing.
However, Washington’s new decision, Moscow’s response, and Kiev’s actions could push the conflict into a new phase. Both Russia and Ukraine are about to enter winter, a time that is not favorable for large-scale military operations. At the same time, the possibility of resuming negotiations in the spring has gradually become apparent under the new US President. Therefore, both Kiev and Moscow are trying to gain the greatest possible advantage in November and early December, with more intense and stalemate fighting.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/my-cho-phep-ukraine-tan-cong-sau-vao-lanh-tho-nga-den-xanh-nhay-cham-294594.html
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