The Deputy Director of the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) said that Vietnam officially reached the replacement fertility level in 2006 when the total fertility rate (TFR) reached 2.09 children/woman, however the replacement fertility level is not really sustainable. In the past two decades, the fertility rate in urban areas has fallen below the replacement fertility level, fluctuating around 1.7 - 1.8 children/woman.
Vietnam's population size reaches over 100 million people but birth rate continues to decrease
Notably, the fertility rate has also decreased in rural areas. The average number of children per rural woman has decreased from 2.2 to 2.3 in 2019 to 2.07 children per woman, the lowest ever.
Vietnam's population size is forecasted according to three assumptions: low birth rate, medium birth rate, high birth rate.
In particular, if the fertility rate is low (the fertility rate in the period 2019 - 2069 is from 2.09 children/woman in 2019 and gradually decreases in the following years), by the end of the forecast period, in 2069, Vietnam's fertility rate will be only 1.85 children/woman. If the fertility rate is maintained at a slow decrease in the period 2019 - 2069, trying to achieve the goal of maintaining the replacement fertility rate, Vietnam's fertility rate will reach 2.01 children/woman at the end of the period. With the assumption of a high fertility rate in the period 2019 - 2069, Vietnam will reach the replacement fertility rate (2.1 children/woman) at the end of the forecast period.
If the birth rate continues to decrease, in addition to the impact on population size, it will also lead to a decrease in the proportion of children under 15 years old, an increase in the proportion of the elderly, a decrease in the working-age population, while the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people will increase rapidly.
According to a study, with the average scenario, Vietnam's population is forecast to be 104.5 million in 2029, 110.8 million in 2039 and 116.9 million in 2069. In the 5 years from 2019 to 2024, our country's annual population growth rate is 0.93%. In the future, the population growth rate is forecast to continue to decrease and reach a "stagnant" state in the period from 2064 to 2069.
According to the Department of Population, Vietnam's population reached 96 million people in 2019, and will reach more than 100 million people by 2023. Vietnam is the third most populous country in Southeast Asia (after Indonesia and the Philippines); 15th in the world. However, the population growth rate is on a downward trend, and the birth rate has continuously decreased in recent years.
Globally, women today are having, on average, one fewer child than they did in 1990. The current global fertility rate is 2.25 children per woman. More than half of the countries and regions worldwide have fertility rates below replacement level (2.1 children per woman). Nearly one-fifth of countries and regions are now experiencing “very low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 children per woman.
According to the World Population Policy Report 2021, in 2019, globally, 69 governments had policies to reduce fertility, 55 governments had policies to increase fertility, 19 governments focused on maintaining current fertility, and 54 governments had no official fertility policy.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/muc-sinh-tai-viet-nam-lien-tuc-giam-18524122919141646.htm
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