Will harsh winter cause trouble for Ukraine?

The lack of success of Ukrainian forces in their counteroffensive this summer and the heavy losses of weapons and equipment mean that Kiev must fight cautiously if it wants to maintain the initiative on the battlefield.

Despite five months of counterattacks, the Ukrainian military has failed to breach Russia’s defenses, and Ukraine now faces a daunting set of challenges: maintaining pressure on Russia while reorganizing its combat units for further offensive operations.

Ukrainian army combat vehicles destroyed on the battlefield.

Battlefield situation

Both Russia and Ukraine will struggle to generate offensive combat power in 2023. The loss of forces, especially trained officers and soldiers with battlefield experience, has limited the organization and coordination of offensive operations.

Faced with a defense line of dense minefields, Ukrainian forces were limited in their operations. As they expanded their operations, Ukrainian forces lost coordination with their weapons and support vehicles. Similarly, Russia also had difficulty coordinating and coordinating larger-scale operations.

For both Russia and Ukraine, the ability to scale up to be effective is limited by a lack of trained troops. Ukrainian units preparing for the front are training on a larger scale in locations far from the battlefield for safety reasons. Meanwhile, Russia is also having to call up reserves to maintain the strength of its frontline units.

Researcher Jack Watling at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed that during the winter of 2022, much of the front saw fierce fighting, but there were only limited attempts by Ukraine to change the front line.

However, the Ukrainian army's inability to make any breakthroughs has allowed Russia to build three vast defense lines of mines, trenches and obstacles, making Ukraine's offensive operations this past summer much more difficult.

If Ukraine does not continue to put pressure on Russian defenses this winter, there is a risk that they will be expanded. So Kiev must balance the redeployment of its forces with the need to maintain pressure on Russian forces.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Ukraine's counteroffensive campaign did not appear to have made significant progress against Russia's formidable defenses, but it also put more strain on Russia's manpower resources.

Ukraine's difficulties

Ukraine will face major challenges due to the shifting balance of arms advantage. This summer, Ukraine gained artillery superiority for the first time, but saw ammunition consumption rate of over 200,000 rounds per month.

In the coming time, Ukraine will not have enough ammunition to maintain this rate of fire, while NATO's reserves are depleted and the rate of ammunition production is too low compared to demand.

Meanwhile, Russia's domestic production has been transformed, and the number of ammunition has increased rapidly. In addition, the West believes that Russia is also receiving supplies from a number of other countries, but Russia still denies this information.

Another challenge for Ukraine is air defense, researcher Jack Watling said, adding that Russian attacks on critical infrastructure would pose a major threat to Ukraine. Russia would gain a decisive advantage on the battlefield as its air force could bomb from medium altitude, significantly increasing the accuracy of its attacks.

The Russian army is receiving more and more offensive weapons thanks to the strengthening and expansion of the military industry's production lines. The number of long-range missiles produced has doubled over the past year. In October 2022, Russia produced about 40 long-range missiles per month, now it produces more than 100 per month and is supplemented by a large number of Geran-2 drones.

An artillery battery of the Russian Army.

Furthermore, on October 18, UN Security Council restrictions on Iran's missile program are set to expire. Russia has been in talks with Iran about missile deliveries after that date, expecting the Islamic nation to be a plentiful source of missiles for Russia's winter campaign season.

Nearly 20 months of conflict have drained the military resources of both sides, but there is no sign of a cooling-off. Since early June, Kiev has launched a counter-offensive campaign and regained control of a number of cities and villages.

However, many believe that maintaining the momentum of the counteroffensive in winter will be a huge challenge for Ukraine because half of the energy infrastructure has been destroyed, which could disrupt military logistics operations. Moreover, winter could challenge the ability of the West to provide weapons to Ukraine, as these countries have to deal with the problem of energy supply tensions.

Le Hung (RUSI)

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