Analysts say the stock market is volatile, gold is not a stable investment channel, foreign currency is only for those who are allowed to do business, savings and real estate are still safe investment channels for capital.
Savings: Safe investment channel
Savings interest rates at many banks have now dropped sharply to below 6%/year for a 12-month term. Although the interest rates are low, according to experts, while most investment channels have problems, savings are still a safe investment channel.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a finance and banking expert, assessed that although savings interest rates have hit rock bottom, people have only one investment channel left: bank deposits. This is still a safe investment channel, and even an interest rate of only 5-6%/year is a significant level for investment.
Mr. Hieu predicts that bank deposits will continue to increase in the coming time.
“ From now until the end of the year, there will be a large amount of bank deposits maturing, but investors have no other choice but to invest in bank deposits. When the deposits mature, they may renew them with the hope that interest rates will not decrease further, ” said Mr. Hieu.
Despite low interest rates, savings are still a safe channel. (Illustration photo).
Forecasting the future development of interest rates, Mr. Nguyen Tri Hieu predicted that if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues its cycle of raising interest rates, the State Bank of Vietnam will likely not reduce interest rates as planned and may even reverse monetary policy.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Pham Hoang Quang Kiet - Deputy Head of Research and Analysis Department at FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management Company also commented that the room for interest rate reduction at this time is no longer high because the State Bank finds it difficult to maintain excess liquidity when the exchange rate is under pressure.
Credit growth in the last quarter of the year is also often rapid, making it difficult for banks to further lower interest rates. Along with the new regulation on the application of short-term capital mobilization ratio for medium and long-term lending, according to Mr. Kiet's forecast, mobilization interest rates will remain stable from now until the end of the first quarter of 2024.
It can be seen that, although savings interest rates have hit rock bottom recently, people still find it difficult to "turn their backs" on banks.
According to data from the General Statistics Office, by September 20, 2023, total means of payment increased by 4.75% compared to the end of 2022, capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 5.8%.
State Bank data also shows that the total mobilized capital of commercial banks was 12.9 million billion VND as of September 30.
Real Estate: Time to Put Down the Money
The real estate market is assessed to have bottomed out and is preparing for a recovery cycle in 2024. Therefore, according to experts, this is a good time for investors to put money down.
Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice President of Vietnam Real Estate Association, President of Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association said: "We predict that the fourth quarter of 2023 will be the time to start recovering. Since the third quarter of 2023, there have been many positive signs. Of course, compared to the period of 2018 - 2019, it is still far away, only a few thousand compared to tens of thousands of transactions in the past. But in this difficult time, a few thousand is an encouraging number, creating momentum for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. We hope to have many improvements when policies to remove difficulties have a positive impact on the market".
Many experts say it's time to put money down to buy real estate.
Sharing the same view, Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council also commented that the real estate market has been recovering. However, compared to the golden time, it has only recovered about 20-30%.
In the coming time, the real estate market will develop according to a better scenario, the big "boost" will start from the beginning of the first quarter of 2024, because interest rates have been decreasing; the penetration of policies at that time will also be better, especially with the level of transparency when 4 laws are passed by the National Assembly in the coming October.
In addition, the cases of law violations this year will basically be handled. By that time, the economic and macroeconomic recovery situation of Vietnam and the world will also be clearer.
" Therefore, in my opinion, early 2024 will be a favorable time for investors to make investment decisions, because interest rates have decreased and real estate prices have been reasonably regulated, " the expert said.
Currently, in some markets such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces such as Binh Duong, Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen, etc., projects are starting to start selling. In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, many projects have recorded a sharp increase in product booking rates, focusing on the apartment segment. Some newly opened projects have even recorded "sold out" within the day.
According to Savills Vietnam's forecast, the market will have more positive changes by the end of 2023 because banks have lowered interest rates, and policies to remove obstacles and difficulties from the Government are gradually taking effect. It is forecasted that from the fourth quarter of 2023, the market's recovery momentum will be clearer.
According to experts, when the market improves, real estate prices will begin an upward cycle and 2024 is expected to be the year the market will develop again. Therefore, this is also a good time for investors to invest in good products with standard legal documents.
Ngoc Vy
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