The Party Central Committee Office has just issued a document announcing the Politburo's opinion on the preliminary review of the implementation of Resolution 21/2017 of the Party Central Committee (12th tenure) on population work in the new situation and amending Party and State regulations related to population policy.

In the notice of the Party Central Committee Office, the Politburo assigned the Central Inspection Commission to advise and amend the regulations of the Central Executive Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat related to handling violations of population policy and proactively amend Instruction No. 05/2022 of the Central Inspection Commission in the direction of not disciplining cases of giving birth to a third child or more, in line with amending legal regulations (not retroactively handling cases that have been disciplined).

The Politburo assigned the National Assembly Party Committee and the Government Party Committee to coordinate in leading and directing the acceleration of the progress of drafting and submitting the Population Law to the National Assembly for approval in the spirit of the Resolution of the 13th National Party Congress in 2025. In the immediate future, the Politburo requested to urgently review and amend legal documents with regulations on the number of children , to be completed in the first quarter of 2025.

Urgent policy

"This is a very urgent, urgent and very correct policy," Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues (National Economics University, Hanoi), told VietNamNet on February 20. Professor Cu emphasized that this is even more meaningful in the context of the general fertility rate across the country tending to decrease sharply, especially in urban areas.

Up to now, the regulation "disciplinary action for giving birth to a third child or more" has not been applied to the people. The whole country currently has more than 5.6 million party members. According to Professor Cu, the regulation "not to discipline party members who give birth to a third child or more" not only affects this group of people but also has a general scope of influence.

The expert assessed that if implemented, the above regulation would be a breakthrough in policy , contributing to improving and preventing the current decline in birth rate , "paving the way" for amending other regulations, specifically amending the 2008 Population Ordinance, building the Population Law, creating synchronous regulations in the political system.

"Impatient as birth rate drops lower and lower"

"Seeing the Vietnamese birth rate getting lower and lower, I am very impatient," Professor Cu shared.

According to the results of the Mid-Term Population and Housing Survey recently announced by the General Statistics Office, the Vietnamese birth rate in 2024 is 1.91 children per woman, the lowest level recorded in history. This is the second year that the birth rate continues to fall below 2 children.

According to the General Statistics Office, in 2024, Vietnam's total fertility rate will be lower than the average of Southeast Asian countries (2 children/woman). Vietnam's fertility rate will only be higher than that of four countries in the region: Brunei (1.8 children/woman), Malaysia (1.6 children), Thailand and Singapore (1 child/woman).

According to the 2024 survey results, the fertility rate in urban areas is 1.67 children/woman, lower than that in rural areas (2.08 children). In rural areas, from 2022 onwards, the fertility rate has always been higher than the replacement fertility rate, but in the past 2 years, the fertility rate has begun to decrease sharply and has been slightly lower than the replacement fertility rate.

The number of localities with fertility rates below replacement level is on the rise. Specifically, in 2019 there were 22 provinces, in 2023 there were 27 provinces and in 2024 there were 32 provinces. Ho Chi Minh City and most provinces in the Southeast and Mekong Delta have fertility rates much lower than replacement level (from 1.39 to 1.74 children per woman).

According to information from the Ministry of Health, the Department of Population has completed the proposal to develop the Population Law to report to the Government; is focusing on perfecting the institution, specifically completing this draft law to submit to the National Assembly at the 10th session (2025) to bring Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW into practice.

The Population Law drafted by the Ministry of Health is designed in a way that does not stipulate the number of children for each couple but instead gives the right to decide and the responsibility to each individual and couple. This is considered a fundamental change in the Population Law compared to the Population Ordinance.

With the low birth rate scenario, in 24 years Vietnam's population growth rate will be negative.

In the report assessing the impact of the Population Law project, the Ministry of Health acknowledged the fact that in some urban areas, with developed economies and societies, the trend of not wanting to have children or having very few children has appeared . The birth rate has fallen much lower than the replacement rate, concentrated in the Southeast region, the Mekong Delta and some Central Coast provinces. This agency has repeatedly predicted that the birth rate will continue to decrease in the coming years.

Professor Cu said that a prolonged low birth rate causes many consequences such as rapid population aging, labor shortage, and impacts on social security... as many countries have learned, and also wastes resources.

"Population aging in Vietnam is happening very quickly. I just had a business trip to Thai Binh, in a commune in Thai Thuy district, 20% of the population is elderly," Professor Cu shared.

In the forecast of Vietnam's population until 2069, in the low fertility scenario, Vietnam will face the risk of a negative average population growth rate (-0.04%) in 2059. Meanwhile, in the medium fertility scenario, 10 years later (2069), this number will only reach 0.

Urgent policy

"Impatient as birth rate drops lower and lower"

With the low birth rate scenario, in 24 years Vietnam's population growth rate will be negative.

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