The Southern Hydrometeorological Station has just announced the general weather trend. Accordingly, in the latest forecasts on ENSO trends in the NINO 3-4 region of the world's climate centers, the probability of the neutral state transitioning to La Nina is increasingly lower and later than previous forecasts. Even the IRI forecast, in the forecast session on October 18, showed that the neutral phase will continue to last from October to December 2024 with a probability of 53%.

Regarding the weather in Ho Chi Minh City, according to the Meteorological Station, in November, rain tends to decrease a lot compared to October, but there are still days with mixed rain and no rain.

Specifically, in the first week (November 1-10) , cold air continues to strengthen in the North and Central regions on November 1-2; a stronger strengthening period occurs around November 5-6 and then is continuously supplemented until the end of the week.

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The weather in Ho Chi Minh City is likely to be cold as cold air diffuses. Illustration: Thanh Tung

The low pressure trough passes through the Southern region, with an axis at about 7-10 degrees North latitude; in the first half of the week it connects with low pressure areas in the central or southern East Sea; from the middle to the end of the week, it tends to weaken and be compressed to the south and weaken.

Regional weather on November 1-2: The region is affected by two weather systems: cold air strengthening and diffusing to the south and a low pressure trough with an axis at about 8-12 degrees North latitude. Therefore, the weather will have widespread rain with the possibility of rain in the early morning of November 2.

November 3-4: The cold air has not weakened yet, but the conflict between the two systems is less intense. Rain has decreased, only scattered in some places; the days are more sunny and the temperature increases slightly.

November 5-7: Cold air strengthens and diffuses more strongly to the south, accompanied by disturbances in the easterly wind zone causing rain in the area; there is a possibility of rain in the early morning but only light rain, some places have moderate rain.

November 8-10: This is the period when cold air diffuses deep to the south, greatly affecting the weather in the region, so the rain decreases, mostly just insignificant light rain.

Cold air strengthens and diffuses strongly to the south

During the week of mid-November (November 11-20) , there is a possibility of 2-3 cold air intensifications, some lasting 4-5 days. Accompanying these intensifications are disturbances in the easterly wind zone that are likely to cause showers and thunderstorms in the area for about 1-2 days.

The weather in the region has reduced rain compared to the first week of the month, with only scattered rain in some places with small amounts of rain, lasting for 1-2 days and then returning to no rain in the entire region. The northeast monsoon is quite stable with increasing intensity. In some places, it is likely that the rainy season will end in the middle of November or from the last few days of the first week of November.

Widespread rain before the dry season

Last week (November 21-30) : There will be about 2-3 waves of strengthening to the south and diffusing to the cold air area. The low pressure trough is active and tends to lift its axis slightly to the north with the possibility of low pressure areas appearing in the southern East Sea and affecting the weather in coastal areas and mainland of the South.

The subsequent strengthening of the cold front will also cause the two systems to interact and potentially bring widespread rain to the region. This rain, in some places, may be unseasonal because the rainy season has ended earlier, but in some places it will likely be the last rainy days of the 2024 rainy season.

The weather in the area is rainier than the middle of the month with the possibility of scattered rain in many places lasting about 2-3 days with scattered thunderstorms in many places; some places are likely to have moderate to heavy rain. Beware of tornadoes, lightning, and gusts of wind during thunderstorms.

After this widespread rain lasting several days, it is likely that most of the Southern region will end the rainy season and begin the dry season. However, it is possible that there are still some places where, despite the significant reduction in rain, the rainy season will continue until early next month.

In general, the temperature in November is generally higher than the average but not much, including the average, highest and lowest temperatures. The average temperature is from 27-28 degrees; the highest is 31-33 degrees; the lowest temperature is from 23-26 degrees.

Total monthly rainfall is generally approximately equal to or higher than the average for the same period, in which the first week is 5-10% higher; the middle week is approximately equal to and the last week is 5-15% higher.

Many bad weather combinations appear one after another, the North is about to welcome the first cold spell

Many bad weather combinations appear one after another, the North is about to welcome the first cold spell

Cold air and easterly winds have strongly affected the weather in the northern provinces. The first cold spell may occur from around the night of November 4. It is forecasted that in the coming time, many dangerous weather patterns will occur in regions across the country.
Weather forecast for the next 10 days: The North welcomes strong cold air, turning to cold rain

Weather forecast for the next 10 days: The North welcomes strong cold air, turning to cold rain

Weather forecast for the next 10 days (October 30 - November 8), the North will receive two consecutive cold air waves, the latter of which is stronger, causing cold rain. The rain in the Central region will decrease, then heavy rain will return.