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| The TurkStream pipeline carries Russian gas to several European countries, including Hungary. (Source: Hungarytoday) |
World economy
Global smartphone sales fall to lowest level in a decade
The global smartphone market recorded an 8% decline in sales in the third quarter of 2023, the lowest quarterly figure in a decade, mainly due to a decline in demand for major brands such as Apple and Samsung Electronics in most developed markets.
According to data compiled by Counterpoint Research, the market share of the top five brands, including Chinese companies Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo, has fallen to a three-year low.
Overall, global smartphone sales have extended their year-on-year decline to the ninth consecutive quarter. Counterpoint Research said the decline was mainly due to demand in markets that have not recovered as quickly as expected.
The report raises concerns that the continued decline in the smartphone market could drag down upcoming earnings for companies like Apple, which saw sales fall 8% in the latest quarter. Market leader Samsung Electronics also saw its shipments fall 13% in the period.
Among the companies that gained market share between July and September 2023 was Huawei, Apple’s Chinese rival. Despite tough US sanctions, Huawei shocked the industry earlier this year with its Mate 60 Pro smartphone, which uses a cutting-edge, domestically produced chip.
However, Counterpoint Research's report also showed that total smartphone shipments have increased by 2% across the industry since Q2, raising hopes that the market could end its more than two-year decline in Q4 2023.
Counterpoint Research data also shows that emerging markets remained a bright spot for smartphone sales in the third quarter, with the Middle East and Africa being the only regions to record year-over-year sales growth in the quarter.
But overall, Counterpoint Research said the global smartphone market is expected to continue to decline throughout 2023 to its lowest level in a decade, largely due to changes in consumer replacement habits, especially in developed markets. (AFP, Reuters)
US economy
* The US economy received mixed data on October 17, as the country's manufacturing output increased more than expected in September 2023 despite strikes in the auto industry, but homebuilder confidence fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year in October.
According to a report compiled by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in conjunction with Wells Fargo and released on October 17, the US Home Builder Confidence Index fell for the third consecutive month to 40 this month, after September's index was revised to 44.
This is a sign that high mortgage rates are weighing on the optimism of builders and homebuyers.
* On the same day, October 17, data released by the Fed showed that the country's manufacturing output increased by 0.4% in September , higher than the 0.1% increase forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters news agency.
However, August's figure was revised lower, with output falling 0.1% instead of rising 0.1% as initially reported.
Compared to the same period last year, US manufacturing output decreased by 0.8%. In the third quarter of 2023 alone, manufacturing output of the world's largest economy remained unchanged . (TTXVN)
Chinese Economy
* China's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter of 2023, official data released on October 18 showed, suggesting that the recent recovery could create enough momentum for the country's economy to achieve the government's full-year growth target.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) showed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 4.9% compared to the same period last year, higher than the 4.4% forecast by analysts in a Reuters survey.
GDP grew 1.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from a revised 0.5 percent in the second quarter and beating expectations for a 1 percent gain. China's GDP growth is expected to have picked up to 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter. (Reuters)
European Economy
* According to data from the European Gas Infrastructure, total gas reserves in the European Union (EU) have reached a record absolute maximum . Currently, Europe's underground storage facilities are 97.89% full (8.54 percentage points higher than the average at this time of the past five years), holding 107.75 billion cubic meters of gas. European countries have filled underground storage facilities to the 90% target for the heating season by mid-August. Previously, the European Commission planned to achieve this figure in November . (TTXVN)
* On October 17, investment bank Goldman Sachs forecast that earnings of companies in the STOXX 600 index across Europe will increase by 3% in 2023, compared to the previous forecast of no growth, due to high oil prices.
Higher oil prices will bring higher revenues and benefit sectors that rely on the commodity, according to Goldman Sachs. Shares of major European oil companies such as BP, Shell and TotalEnergies have risen between 4.5% and 7% since the Israel-Hamas conflict began. (Reuters)
* According to the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the country exported 520,000 electric vehicles (EVs) in the period from January to August 2023 , more than double the same period last year.
EV exports reached 23.9 billion euros ($25.2 billion). Most of Germany's EVs were exported to Belgium, followed by the Netherlands and the UK.
Despite the EV boom, traditional internal combustion engine vehicles continue to account for the largest share of German passenger car exports. According to Destatis, 1.1 million internal combustion engine vehicles worth 42 billion euros had been exported by the end of August 2023. (THX)
* Oil shipping rates from Russia's Baltic Sea ports to India have increased by about 50% since last week, as more shipping lines stopped providing services, sources said.
Specifically, shipping fees increased to about 7.5 million USD/trip from October 16, compared to 4.5-4.8 million USD/trip last week.
Shipping rates are on the rise on many shipping routes, from West Africa to the US Gulf, West Africa to the Mediterranean and across the Mediterranean, causing shipping lines to look for safer alternatives. (Reuters)
* The Russian government said it has suspended all imports of Japanese seafood, after Tokyo decided to release wastewater from the shuttered Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean.
Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia's agricultural regulator, said it was jointly implementing temporary restrictions on seafood imports from Japan from October 16 as a "precautionary measure . "
Previously, China also banned the import of Japanese seafood related to the discharge of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant . (AFP)
* According to data released by the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) on October 18, the Czech Republic's inflation rate in September 2023 was 8.3% , the fourth highest in the EU. The average inflation rate of the entire EU is 4.9%. The EU country with the highest inflation rate is Hungary with 12.2% and this is also the only EU member with an inflation rate above 10%. (TTXVN)
Economy of Japan and South Korea
* Deputy Director of the Asia-Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Sanjaya Panth said on October 14 that the recent depreciation of the Yen stems from fundamental factors of the economy, and called on Japanese authorities to consider not intervening in the currency market.
According to Mr. Panth, the IMF considers foreign exchange intervention only appropriate when there is serious market turmoil, rising financial stability risks or the risk of inflation becoming unsustainable. However, in the case of the yen, none of the three main factors mentioned above currently exist. (Reuters)
* International credit rating agency Fitch announced on October 17 that it maintained South Korea's national credit rating at AA- and its credit outlook was "stable" for the second half of 2023.
AA- is the fourth highest rating on Fitch's credit rating scale, after AAA, AA+ and AA. Fitch upgraded South Korea's sovereign credit rating from A+ to AA- in 2012 and has maintained the same rating ever since.
In this assessment, Fitch singled out the strengths of the Korean economy as improvements in the financial sector and good external health, macroeconomic resilience and export dynamism; while also reflecting geopolitical risks related to North Korea and the issue of population structure due to aging. (TTXVN)
* South Korean Minister of Strategy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho recently affirmed that the country will achieve an economic growth rate of over 2% in 2024, as forecast by the IMF. Furthermore, Minister Choo also revealed that South Korea's budget for 2024 will not be tight, but on the contrary, it will be more expansive and the base interest rate will likely go down because it has peaked.
However, contrary to Minister Choo's optimistic assessment, Korean economic researchers and investors believe that the country's economic outlook in 2024 is not very bright. According to experts, the IMF has just continued to lower its forecast for Korea, due to concerns that the effects of the international environment will impact the economy, which is heavily dependent on exports. (TTXVN)
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| Russia suspends all seafood imports from Japan from October 16. (Source: Getty) |
ASEAN Economy and Emerging Economies
* The Australian government said on October 16 that the country plans to protect people from the collapse of cryptocurrencies by forcing these platforms to have financial services licenses.
In a proposal document, the Australian Treasury proposed that any cryptocurrency exchange or digital asset platform with total assets worth more than AUD 5 million (USD 3.2 million) would be required to comply with the above requirement. (TTXVN)
* According to the forecast from the Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia's rice production is expected to decrease by 650,000 tons this year , equivalent to a 2.05% decrease compared to last year.
This year, rice output is expected to hover around 30.90 million tonnes. BPS data shows that rice output from October to December 2023 is expected to decline 10.92 percent to 4.78 million tonnes from 5.37 million tonnes last year. (VNA)
* According to the latest forecast of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), the country's exports in 2024 could recover to reach 3.6% growth, instead of the 2% decline from the previous forecast.
The forecast adjustment is based on the fact that global inflation is gradually declining and many central banks have started to lower interest rates, which is likely to increase demand for goods. (TTXVN)
* Malaysia's real GDP is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 4.0%, according to the IMF. This is mainly driven by higher global export demand, especially from the technology sector.
Speaking at a press conference following the release of the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific on October 18, IMF Asia and the Pacific Research Department Director Shanaka (Jay) Peiris said Malaysia is an open economy, especially in the export of electrical and electronic (E&E) products.
He expressed his hope that the global economy and export demand will gradually recover, especially the technology sector will also flourish next year and that will boost growth to 3% or higher. (TTXVN)
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