Recently, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles, Japanese Defense Minister Hamada Yasukazu and Philippine Defense Minister Carlito Galvez held talks. According to Nikkei Asia , at the talks, the four ministers agreed to strengthen security cooperation to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
US and Japanese coast guard ships dock in Manila for first-ever trilateral coast guard exercise
Philippine Coast Guard
This is the first time the four countries have held a four-way defense ministerial meeting. This event takes place in the context of the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines recently strengthening their bilateral and multilateral military cooperation. From June 1 to 7, the US, Japan and the Philippines held their first joint coast guard exercise in the East Sea. Australia participated in the exercise as an observer. In early February, the US and the Philippines also revealed that they were considering sending coast guards to patrol together in the East Sea - a move seen as a response to China's gray zone strategy in this sea. Also in February, in response to Nikkei Asia during his visit to Japan, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. affirmed that "protecting the Philippines' territorial waters" in the East Sea is a focus in efforts to strengthen security agreements with the US and Japan. Speaking about the military agreements with the US and Japan, he stated: "We do not want to be provocative, but... we feel that the cooperation will help ensure safe shipping lanes in the South China Sea. And furthermore, we are doing everything we can to protect our maritime sovereignty."
The above moves raise the question of whether the US - Japan - Australia - Philippines are forming an alliance in the form of the "Quad" (US - Japan - Australia - India)? To clarify this issue, international experts gave some comments when answering Thanh Nien on June 5.
Can form faster than "The Quartet"
It is highly likely that the first meeting of the four defense ministers will pave the way for the formation of an East Asian version of the "Quad" (which includes the US - Japan - Australia - India), because the formation process is quite similar to the original "Quad", which also started from an informal meeting and gradually became institutionalized.
Moreover, the institutionalization process of the new alliance may be faster than the formation of the "Quad" for the following reasons: Japan, Australia and the Philippines are all allies of the US; the Philippines is now more balanced and ready to strengthen relations with the US; Japan, Australia and the US are able and willing to provide support to the Philippines to improve its maritime law enforcement capabilities, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief, etc.
So, if everything goes smoothly, the US-Japan-Australia-Philippines four-way framework could develop much faster than the “Quad”.
Associate Professor Kei Koga (Global Issues and Public Policy Programme - School of Social Sciences - Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)
Share common aspirations
The Quad Defense Ministers Meeting of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines for the first time reaffirmed Manila’s geographic importance and its expanding diplomatic and defense network in the region. All four countries have aspirations for a rules-based maritime norm in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific.
In some ways, a second “Quad” can be expected, and while it cannot be compared to India, the Philippines has its place in the broader diplomatic and military modernization. Washington, Tokyo and Canberra are all supporting Manila in maritime defense, military modernization to shift to external defense. There is great potential for such a quadrilateral alliance, as the four countries are united in common foreign and security policies. The Philippines represents Southeast Asia, and will have an equal footing in various security agendas in the region.
Dr. Chester B. Cabalza (President of the Organization for International Development and Security Cooperation, Philippines)
Efforts by the government of President Marcos Jr.
These four countries have been cooperating bilaterally for some time. More recently, the Marcos Jr. administration has been working to strengthen security and investment ties with Japan, the United States, and Australia. That is a key factor in making the possibility of a quadrilateral alliance possible. And of course, China’s own behavior in the South China Sea and the region has had a big impact.
Compared to the "Quad", this alliance, if formed, would be different both geographically and in model. The "Quad" would not only include treaty allies like the four countries of the United States, Australia, Japan and the Philippines. And the scope of operations of the four-country alliance, if it exists, would mainly revolve around the Philippines' maritime and exclusive economic zones.
Of course, apart from the above differences, both the "Quad" and the above four-country alliance, if any, are motivated by common interests.
Professor John Blaxland (Centre for Strategic and Defence Studies, Australian National University)
Strengthening deterrence
There is already an alliance between the US and the Philippines, but I think it would be difficult for Japan to join another formal alliance because the Japanese people would find it difficult to agree. However, the fact that the US-Japan-Philippines are expanding cooperation and military cooperation to strengthen deterrence against China's aggressive behavior, especially in the South China Sea, this trilateral cooperation sends a message that Beijing faces increasing resistance.
Maritime military exercises involving the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines may soon take place. The participation of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force and the Ground Self-Defense Force in the Philippines would be more politically complicated, but if China continues to raise tensions, Tokyo may mobilize the Air Self-Defense Force to join the US, Philippine and Australian air forces in the Philippines in the near future. And Tokyo may also mobilize the Ground Self-Defense Force to participate in small-scale exercises if Japanese public opinion agrees.
Beijing cannot be blamed for these developments. Both the Philippines and Australia are increasingly concerned about China. As a general rule, countries tend to cooperate to counter a common threat.
Former US Navy Colonel Carl O. Schuster (former Director of Operations of the Joint Intelligence Center - US Navy Pacific Command and currently teaching at Hawaii Pacific University)
Philippines wants more "leverage"
The Philippines’ participation in the trilateral US-Japan-Australia defense cooperation under President Marcos Jr. reflects Manila’s growing concerns about Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea. Marcos Jr. has changed his approach from his predecessor, no longer accommodating Beijing but moving closer to Washington. From the US and Japan’s perspective, access to Philippine bases to promote operations far away also serves to guard against the risk of conflict in the region, especially in the Taiwan Strait.
Manila is likely to seek military assistance from Washington, Tokyo, and Canberra to upgrade its military capabilities, aiming to deter Beijing in its sovereignty disputes but not provoke Beijing. The Marcos Jr. administration, for example, has insisted that new U.S. access to Philippine bases cannot be used for offensive purposes, such as if conflict in the Taiwan Strait were to erupt. Using closer defense ties as leverage, Marcos Jr. is trying to negotiate a joint exploration agreement with China for resources in the South China Sea on terms more favorable to the Philippines.
Professor Yoichiro Sato (International Relations Specialist, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan; Senior Fellow, Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore)
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