Limit sell-offs to unexpected market movements

Stock Market Perspective Week 17-21/6: Limit sell-offs in response to unexpected market fluctuations

It is necessary to limit new purchases when volatility increases with a strong increase in supply; at the same time, limit dumping when the market fluctuates unexpectedly, there will be a recovery point for investors who want to restructure when they have a high proportion.

The highlight of the past week was the index successfully surpassing the 1,300 mark in the session on June 12, creating excitement for many investors. However, signs of profit-taking appeared and were clearer in the last session of the week. Falling more than 21 points in the last session of the week, the index lost all the gains from the beginning of the week. Compared to the end of last week, VN-Index decreased by 7.67 points (-0.6%) and closed the week at 1,279.91.

Of course, the sharp decline at the end of the week is not enough to cause a short-term reversal to a downward trend for the VN-Index, but it is necessary to pay attention to the support zone of 1,270 - 1,275 to assess the possibility of a decline for the VN-Index.

The weekend trading session also recorded the rise of telecommunications technology stocks, notably the " Viettel family" stocks such as CTR, VGI, ... although they did not maintain the highest level of the session, the increase was maintained relatively positively. In which, VGI and CTR both continued to set new record highs. This group of stocks maintained positive developments thanks to the technology wave that is taking place strongly in the global market, at the same time, the stable growth in business results in recent times also reinforced this increase.

Notable news this past week was the increase in world shipping rates and congestion at the port of Singapore due to the chain reaction from the maritime crisis in the Red Sea.

According to SSI Research, the World Container Index (WCI) recently reached $4,716/FEU (applied to 40-foot containers), up 181% yoy and equivalent to 232% compared to the 2019 average ($1,420/FEU). Meanwhile, time charter rates for 1,700-TEU vessels increased by 65% ​​from the beginning of 2024 to mid-May and are now up 90% year-to-date.

On the supply side, the impact of the diversion away from the Red Sea has already been felt at supply chain bottlenecks starting in major ports such as Singapore, Dubai and Rotterdam. The imbalance in container volumes has also led to container shortages at some key ports in China, further pushing up freight rates.

On the demand side, SSI Research sees an increasing trend in inventory levels from Q1/2024, along with strong demand for shipping from China to other regions of the world, especially the US, which has pushed container shipping rates up sharply recently.

Looking back, the Evergiven grounding that paralyzed the Suez Canal for six days in May 2021, coupled with the container shortage during this time, impacted the entire supply chain and pushed spot rates up 100% in six months, from May 2021 to November 2021. Although the causes are different, it can be seen that both the current and past cases have seen the distance traveled pushing the demand for TEU-miles higher.

Currently, the peak shipping season has just begun, SSI Research believes that the current pressures will continue, even increase during the peak season, and may only ease in the fourth quarter of 2024 when the peak shipping season ends, when carriers can rearrange their supply chains.

In addition, the information that made many investors somewhat apprehensive, especially appearing in the adjustment session, was that the iShares MSCI Frontier and Select EM ETF fund of BlackRock announced that it would stop operating in Vietnam at the end of the first quarter of 2025.

In general, the short-term growth structure of the index has not changed. Accordingly, short-term investors can continue to hold existing positions in the portfolio and maintain good growth momentum. At the same time, corrections around strong support zones are still opening up buying opportunities, optimizing stock accumulation positions, paying special attention to stocks with good growth momentum and much growth potential.

According to Mr. Hoang Tuan, Securities Consulting Expert of SSI Securities Company, the market is sending out signals that need further observation, and at the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to account risk management, including limiting new purchases when volatility increases with a strong increase in supply; at the same time, limiting sell-offs when the market fluctuates unexpectedly, there will be a recovery point for investors who want to restructure when they have a high proportion (over 70%NAV).

Sectors that can be observed for support include banking (STB, ACB , MBB); securities (SSI, VND); steel (HPG, HSG), logistics (GMD, HAH).

According to SSI Research's estimates, stocks with solid business growth in the Retail, Steel-Galvanized Steel, Securities and Export sectors will have the most opportunities in 2024. Meanwhile, the market's attention has also expanded to some sectors with almost flat valuations since the beginning of 2023, such as the Food and Beverage and Utilities (electricity) groups and stocks expected to pay high dividends.

SSI Research's June recommendation list includes HAH, PPC, VPB, IDC, ACV, PVS, MSN

For the whole month of June, SHS Securities Company believes that VN-Index will likely continue to accumulate in the channel of 1,250 points - 1,300 points and is unlikely to form a real uptrend. This development is appropriate in the context of increasing geopolitical tensions in the world, interest rates in the US are likely to continue to remain high in the policy meeting taking place on June 13, inflationary pressure, domestic exchange rates are still maintained, foreign investors are continuously net sellers.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-17-216-han-che-ban-thao-doi-voi-bien-dong-bat-ngo-cua-thi-truong-d217793.html