The Ministry of Planning and Investment updated two scenarios for the last 6 months of 2023 as Vietnam strives for a 6-6.5% GDP growth for the whole year.
This information was stated by Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, when reporting on the socio-economic situation, at the Government meeting with localities, on the morning of July 4.
Accordingly, GDP in the second quarter increased by 4.14%, and the first half of the year was 3.72%. Forecasting the context, situation in the second half of the year and the results achieved in the past 6 months, the Ministry of Planning and Investment updated two growth scenarios for the last 6 months of the year.
Scenario 1 , with GDP expected to increase by 6% for the whole year, growth in the third quarter must reach 6.8%, and in the fourth quarter it must be 9%, 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points higher, respectively, than the scenario proposed at the beginning of the year. With this scenario, overall growth in the last 6 months of the year must reach 8%.
Scenario 2 , GDP in 2023 increases by 6.5%. That is, the last two quarters of the year must achieve growth of 7.4% and 10.3%. These growth rates are 0.9 and 3.2 percentage points higher than the scenario proposed at the beginning of the year, respectively. Overall, growth in the second half of the year must reach 8.9%.
"Achieving the growth target of 6.5% this year is a huge challenge," the Minister of Planning and Investment commented.
Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung. Photo: Hoang Phong
Many tasks and solutions were proposed by this Ministry, in which ministries and localities need to remove difficulties, support production and business, enterprises, promote growth drivers of domestic consumption, investment (including the private sector, state-owned enterprises, attracting FDI and public investment) and export.
The stock, real estate, corporate bond, and labor markets must be closely monitored and problems resolved... to become effective medium- and long-term capital mobilization channels for businesses.
In addition, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, it is necessary to promote administrative procedure reform, improve the investment and business environment associated with increasing decentralization and delegation of power, creating maximum convenience for people and businesses.
Previously, some international organizations had lowered their growth forecasts for Vietnam this year, but they were still basically positive. For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its report released at the end of June lowered its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam this year from 5.8% to 4.7%.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chairs a Government meeting with localities on July 4. Photo: VGP
Looking back at the socio-economic situation in the first 6 months of the year , the Ministry of Planning and Investment said that economic indicators in June were better than in May and the second quarter was better than the first quarter.
The average consumer price index (CPI) for the first 6 months increased by 3.39% over the same period, continuing the downward trend. Trade surplus was over 12.2 billion USD. Investment showed more positive signs, estimated at 1.35 million billion VND, up 4.7% over the same period. Disbursement of public investment capital was over 65,000 billion VND, reaching nearly 30.5% of the plan.
Services remain an important driver of the economy, contributing 80% to overall growth, with a 6-month value added of 6.3%.
The business registration situation was more positive, with 13,900 newly registered businesses in June; nearly 7,100 businesses returned to operation, 3.1 times higher than the same period.
Despite many positive signals, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said that the economic and social situation still has limitations and difficulties. He noted issues such as economic growth in the first 6 months of the year of 3.72%, lower than the set scenario (6.2%); production, business, labor and employment facing many difficulties. Along with that, there is a situation where civil servants are afraid of making mistakes and avoid responsibility.
The report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment at the meeting also pointed out that low growth in the industrial and construction sector, more than 1.1%, was the reason for low GDP growth in the first half of the year, reaching 60% of the plan.
At the same time, the unemployment rate in the second quarter was 2.06%; labor cuts were concentrated in some localities with many industrial parks and export processing zones, such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Bac Giang, Dong Nai, Bac Ninh, and Binh Duong.
"The resilience of domestic enterprises, after a long period of being affected by Covid-19, is still weak, many enterprises have reached the limit, especially small and medium enterprises," according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
It is expected that after the meeting, the Government will issue a Resolution of the meeting and a specialized Resolution on removing difficulties for production and business, continuing to promote administrative procedure reform, and tightening discipline and order.
Mr. Minh
Comment (0)