According to experts, the stock market may continue to retest the 1,300-point zone at the beginning of the new week and developments in this zone may determine the short-term trend of the index.
The Vietnamese stock market has conquered the "psychological" threshold of 1,300 points and remained above this threshold despite strong profit-taking pressure - Photo: QUANG DINH
VN-Index surpassed the 1,300 point mark but then fluctuated strongly and only increased slightly, closing last week at 1,305.
2 scenarios for the stock market
* Mr. Vu Duy Khanh, Director of Analysis at Smart Invest Securities:
- Investor sentiment is challenged, profit-taking pressure increases as the index approaches higher levels. However, liquidity improves, domestic cash flow is still strong enough to maintain the market rhythm, despite continued net foreign withdrawal.
So will the new week be a breakout or continue to test? Scenario 1: Break out of 1,300 points if domestic cash flow continues to remain high (over 20,000 billion VND/day) and the index surpasses 1,310 (the nearest resistance).
VN-Index may head towards the 1,320-1,340 range in the short term but needs more positive catalysts, such as positive macroeconomic information or good Q1-2025 profit reports from large enterprises.
Scenario 2: The market is more likely to fluctuate around 1,300-1,310 to consolidate the new price base. If there is not enough demand to surpass 1,310, the index may return to test the support zone of 1,290-1,300. I am more inclined towards this scenario.
In general, market developments depend a lot on investor sentiment and foreign investors' movements, whether net withdrawals will decrease or not.
Furthermore, if the international market continues to be unstable, domestic investors may be more cautious. With the possibility of only a slight correction in the US (5-10%), the VN-Index may fluctuate around 1,300 without being pulled down too far.
Consider a deeper adjustment scenario
* Mr. Le Tran Khang, senior analyst at Phu Hung Securities (PHS):
- Technically, VN-Index continues to consolidate around the 1,300-point area, showing that this level is acting as a good support level in the short term. However, the index's movement back to a high amplitude is something to note.
VN30 has also just retested the old peak of 1,350 with a positive reaction from demand, while HNX-Index still faces challenges near the 240 resistance with the Doji candlestick pattern (with closing and opening prices nearly equal).
In the current context, VN-Index needs more green candles (buyers are dominating over sellers) to confirm above the 1,310 point zone to confirm a more convincing upward momentum.
If the market remains sideways near 1,300 points, investors need to consider the possibility of a deeper correction and the index may retreat to the 1,290 point area to regain momentum.
General strategy: Hold, reduce weight if the 1,290 point threshold is lost, closely monitor developments in the coming sessions.
Cash flows quickly between industry groups
* Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, VNDIRECT Securities:
- The highlight of last week was the rapid cash flow between industry groups, driven by individual stories, typically the story of imposing defense tariffs on the steel industry, legal clearance for some residential real estate projects and expectations for KRX.
These stories partly helped maintain the market's upward momentum amid increasing profit-taking pressure and adverse fluctuations in the international market.
One important piece of news this past week was Mr. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on European imports and said tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead as planned on March 4, along with an additional 10% tariff on China.
These developments are noteworthy and although Vietnam is still not on the US tariff list, risk management should take this into account. Early in the week, the market may continue to retest the 1,300 point area and developments in this area may determine the short-term trend of the market.
If VN-Index continues to maintain above 1,300 points, the uptrend will remain intact and the market may head towards a higher zone of 1,320-1,340 points.
On a less positive note, if it fails to stay above 1,300 points, the index may turn around and correct to the support zone of 1,280 points.
Investors need to prepare for both of these possible scenarios, accordingly, they need to control the leverage ratio at a safe threshold and proactively reduce the proportion of stocks in the group that has increased rapidly.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/hai-kich-ban-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-khi-yeu-to-bat-loi-xuat-hien-vung-1-300-rung-lac-20250303055327558.htm
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