Gasoline prices may reverse and decrease in the operating period tomorrow, December 26?

According to VPI, at the operating session tomorrow (December 26), gasoline prices may decrease by 1.8%, and oil prices may decrease by 0.1-1.2% if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

Buying and selling gasoline and oil at Petrolimex gas stations in Hanoi. (Photo: Tran Viet/VNA)

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that in the operating session tomorrow (December 26), gasoline prices may decrease by 1.8%, while oil prices may decrease by 0.1-1.2% if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 372 VND to 19,868 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 383 VND to 20,617 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices this period will tend to decrease slightly, in which kerosene may decrease by 1.2% to VND18,725/liter, diesel may decrease by 1% to VND18,541/liter, and fuel oil may decrease by 0.1% to VND15,881/kg.

VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

In the world market, Asian oil prices increased in the session on December 24, in contrast to the decrease in the previous session thanks to a somewhat positive short-term market outlook, despite sparse trading activities before the Christmas holiday.

On the afternoon of December 24 (Vietnam time), the price of North Sea Brent crude oil increased by 0.6% to 73.05 USD/barrel; the price of US light sweet crude oil (WTI) increased by 0.6% to 69.62 USD/barrel.

Analysts said supply and demand changes in December 2024 so far supported their less optimistic views. Several other analysts also pointed to positive signs for the oil market in the coming months.

Neil Crosby, vice president of oil analysis at Sparta Commodities, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent short-term energy outlook (STEO) has shifted the 2025 liquids supply balance into deficit, even though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, continue to put some oil back on the market in 2025.

In addition, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is stepping up fiscal stimulus to revive its weakening economy, which could provide short-term support for WTI at $67 a barrel.

In addition, on the side of the world's largest oil consumer, the US economy is on a solid growth path as it nears the end of 2024, which will also be an important factor supporting oil prices./.

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