Gold price "lacks new catalyst", Fed starts interest rate cutting cycle, large capital flows may flee this market

Gold price today 4/9/2024, although gold prices have just experienced an all-time high, there is no sign of the excitement that usually marks the top of the market. Meanwhile, another interesting dynamic is still going on, maintaining optimism for the yellow metal.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 9/4 and EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 9/4

1. SJC - Updated: 08/30/2024 08:29 - Website time of supply - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG	79,000	81,000
SJC 5c	79,000	81,020
SJC 2c, 1c, 5 phan	79,000	81,030
SJC 99.99 gold ring 1 chi, 2 chi, 5 chi	77,300	78,600
SJC 99.99 gold ring 0.3 chi, 0.5 chi	77,300	78,700
Jewelry 99.99%	77,250	78,200
Jewelry 99%	75,426	77,426
Jewelry 68%	50,831	53,331
Jewelry 41.7%	30,263	32,763

Update gold price today 9/4/2024

World gold price slightly decreased but still "persevering" stick close to the threshold of 2,500 USD/ounce.

Gold prices fell slightly in the early session on September 3 as investors waited for a series of economic data from the US to assess the scale of the expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 17-18. Investors were also cautiously waiting for better prices to buy.

According to the World & Vietnam Newspaper, at 4:30 p.m. on September 3 (Hanoi time), the listed gold price on the Kitco electronic floor continued to stay at -2,503.20 USD/ounce, up 3.2 USD compared to the previous trading session.

Gold prices hit a record high of $2,531.60 an ounce on August 20. The US dollar remains near a two-week high. The stronger US dollar makes gold less attractive to holders of other currencies.

"Gold has failed to reclaim its record high due to a lack of fresh catalysts. If the US economic data shows a weak economy and the Fed cuts interest rates aggressively, gold will rise," said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA in Asia Pacific . The expert also said that gold prices could rise to $ 2,640 / ounce this year and is likely to reach that level when the Fed confirms that it is starting a long-term interest rate cutting cycle.

Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut in September. The only debate among investors is whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, with 67% leaning toward the smaller cut.

Domestic gold prices of all brands remained stable during the National Day holiday on September 2.

Accordingly, the price of SJC gold bars is stable at 79.00 - 81.00 million VND/tael (buy - sell) at licensed trading establishments. The domestic gold bar price is about 5 million VND/tael higher than the world price.

The price of 9999 round smooth gold rings hovered around a record level of 78.6 million VND/tael. Doji brand listed the price of Doji Hung Thinh Vuong gold rings at 77.5 - 78.6 million VND/tael. Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold rings at 77.3 - 78.6 million VND/tael. PNJ gold traded at 77.4 - 78.6 million VND/tael.

Gold price today September 4, 2024: Gold price 'lacks new catalysts', Fed starts interest rate cutting cycle, large capital flows may flee this market. (Source: Kitco)

Summary of SJC gold bar and gold ring prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of the trading session on the afternoon of September 3 :

Saigon Jewelry Company: SJC gold bars 79.0 - 81.0 million VND/tael; SJC gold rings 77.3 - 78.6 million VND/tael.

Doji Group: SJC gold bars 79.0 - 81.0 million VND/tael; 9999 round rings (Hung Thinh Vuong): 77.5 - 78.6 million VND/tael.

PNJ system: SJC gold bars 79.0 - 81.0 million VND/tael; PNJ 999.9 plain gold rings: 77.4 - 78.6 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Gold and Silver Group: SJC gold bars: 79.0 - 81.0 million VND/tael; Phu Quy 999.9 round gold rings: 77.4 - 78.6 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 79.0 - 81.0 million VND/tael. The price of round gold rings at Vang Rong Thang Long is listed at 77.43 - 78.63 million VND/tael.

Start of "capital migration" from the US?

A rate cut at the Fed's September policy meeting is all but guaranteed, but investors need to pay attention to the impact on US markets, strategist Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, warned of a potential large capital exodus out of the US and into other markets.

On the one hand, the Fed's rate cut will have a limited impact on the US economy because the Fed will not return to a zero interest rate environment, and on the other hand, the market may see capital flows out of the US economy from USD-denominated assets into other markets, said strategist Alden.

Right now, “there’s a lot of global capital pouring into U.S. stocks that hasn’t been seen since the dotcom bubble,” Alden said. As the Fed starts cutting rates, that’s likely to devalue the dollar. From the perspective of foreign investors, their returns won’t be as good. Investors own stocks priced in dollars, and the dollar has fallen. That could cause foreign stock holders to pull out of the U.S. market.

According to Lyn Alden Investment Strategy founder, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle could be the best catalyst to trigger this capital flow.

Gold faced continued selling pressure late last week, and while prices may have room to fall, it is important to remember that the precious metals market still has significant upside momentum. Last week, when gold hit an all-time high above $2,500 an ounce, analysts noted that momentum indicators were not suggesting the market was overheating. Meanwhile, another interesting dynamic is at play in the market – gold is not overbought, but the US dollar is oversold and ready for a potential rally.

Many remain bullish on the yellow metal, advising to buy whenever prices fall. Tobina Kahn, president of House of Kahn Estate Jewelers, recently predicted that gold prices could rise even higher as inflation remains high. The expert said that $3,000 an ounce is a realistic target for gold and it could take just a few months to reach that target.

However, in a cautious view, Exinity Market Analyst Han Tan said that if the unemployment rate falls to 4.2%, this would ease recession concerns. That scenario could send spot gold prices below $2,500 an ounce as expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut at its September meeting fade.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-vang-hom-nay-492024-gia-vang-thieu-chat-xuc-tac-moi-fed-khoi-dong-chu-ky-cat-giam-lai-suat-dong-von-lon-co-the-chay-khoi-thi-truong-nay-284857.html