The domestic gold market continues to be "hot" in the cold last days of the year. SJC gold bars officially set a new historical peak on December 22, surpassing the threshold of 77 million VND/tael. Gold rings, an item that is close to world gold, are also at a fairly high level of 62.08 - 63.03 million VND/tael (buy-sell).

In contrast to the “heat” of the gold market, bank savings interest rates have dropped to historic lows. Currently, four state-owned banks (including Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank, Agribank) list interest rates for terms of 12 months or more at only around 4.8-5%/year. Many people are considering investment channels, including gold.

What will happen to domestic gold prices in the coming time? Will they continue to increase according to experts?

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Domestic gold prices continuously set new "peaks", should we invest? (Photo: Duy Anh)

Sharing with VietNamNet reporter, Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice President of Vietnam Gold Business Association, advisor of World Gold Council in Vietnam, analyzed that domestic gold price is not connected with the world so it often fluctuates abnormally.

Sometimes the world gold price increases, but sometimes the world price decreases, domestic gold does not adjust or decreases slowly.

"The trend is more up than down but be cautious"

This expert pointed out the reason, due to lack of supply, no additional production for 10 years, SJC gold is only exchanged on the market. Therefore, the price of this gold is always 13-14 million VND/tael different from the world price.

“The price of 9999 gold rings fluctuates according to world prices, while the price of SJC gold fluctuates according to psychology. The difference between buying and selling prices is also nearly 1 million VND/tael, to ensure the safety of business units.

Domestic gold prices are easy to increase, hard to decrease. If production is allowed, the price will definitely decrease, there will no longer be such a big difference," Mr. Khanh said.

In the last monetary policy meeting of 2023 recently, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided not to raise interest rates, forecasting to reduce them three times next year. According to Mr. Khanh, at that time, the USD and US bond interest rates will decrease, and gold prices will increase.

Mr. Khanh commented that if the world gold price continues to increase, the domestic gold price will adjust accordingly. Except in the case that the country allows the import of raw gold to produce SJC gold, the price will immediately decrease.

"As long as the State Bank has information that it will allow the import of raw gold for production in the future, the price will drop immediately," said Mr. Khanh.

The price of gold is breaking records every time, making many people think that the higher the price of gold, the harder it is to decrease. At the present time, Mr. Khanh thinks that we should be cautious in both selling and buying. The price of gold rings is only 1-2 million VND/tael different from the world price, so it fluctuates according to the world price. The price of SJC gold is difficult to predict.

The Vice President of the Vietnam Gold Business Association said that many opinions predict that the gold price trend in 2024 will increase more than decrease.

Sharing the same view, economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu pointed out that the gold price increased in December both domestically and internationally due to many reasons, including the Fed's decision on interest rates next year.

“The price of gold in Vietnam affects and “pushes” up the general trend. However, the domestic gold price is affected by several other factors, including the issue of insufficient supply. The domestic gold market is not connected to the world gold market, the State Bank is the only agency that can import gold. Therefore, the domestic gold market in the long term goes together, but in the short term, the domestic gold price is still higher than the world price.

From now until Lunar New Year, the increasing demand for gold by Vietnamese people will push up the price of gold. Besides, when the market is active, speculative factors will push up the price of gold,” Mr. Hieu analyzed.

Maintaining his stance that domestic gold prices will continue to rise, Mr. Hieu said that the price of the precious metal could reach VND77 million/tael. According to him, the fiscal year is almost over. Next year, the economic situation will be "brighter", creating favorable conditions for the gold market.

“For investors, there is always a need to have a “take profit” and “cut loss” point when the gold price drops. Depending on each person’s financial situation to make a decision, there is no standard to say when it is time to sell or buy.

At this point, if you bought at a low price before, the profit for the whole year is about 15-20%, you can sell and "lock in" the profit," Mr. Hieu recommended.