In the first trading session of the new week, November 18, the price of SJC gold bars increased by 500,000 VND to a million VND/tael, up to 81 million VND (buy) and 84 million VND (sell). The price of plain round gold rings of some brands increased by 1-1.1 million VND/tael, up to 83-83.3 million VND/tael (sell).

Has the decline bottomed out?

The world gold market has had a very strong downward adjustment before and after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. From the historical peak of 2,789 USD/ounce on October 30, the gold price fell to 2,750 USD/ounce on November 5, then fell freely to 2,540 USD/ounce on November 14.

Some forecasts in the middle of November mentioned the possibility that the spot gold price on the international market could fall below 2,500 USD, equivalent to a 10% decrease compared to the peak. Some even said that the precious metal could fall to 2,300 USD/ounce (converted to 71.4 million VND/tael), equivalent to a decrease of more than 17% due to profit-taking pressure, pressure from short selling, a stronger USD under President-elect Donald Trump, and declining geopolitical tensions in many regions.

The cash flow into US stocks, into the cryptocurrency market - including Bitcoin - with prices skyrocketing from below 70,000 to above 90,000 USD/BTC... is also a factor that has caused the price of gold to plummet from its peak of nearly 2,800 USD.

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World and domestic gold prices increase sharply again. Photo: MH

However, the rebound in gold prices at the end of the week of November 11-15 and the sharp increase in the first session of the new week (November 18), contrary to the negative forecasts of some Wall Street experts, shows a signal of an increasingly uncertain modern world.

If calculated from the peak established on October 30, within more than two weeks, the world gold price has decreased by about 245 USD per ounce to nearly 2,540 USD/ounce. This is a quite large absolute number.

Relatively, international gold has decreased by nearly 8.8% in this adjustment.

Previously, gold prices did not adjust down much, usually only 5-7%. A 10-15% decrease is very small, because the general trend of gold is to increase in price according to inflation in the world.

The sharp increase in gold prices in the first session of the week is a signal that bottom-fishing demand for gold is very high. Will this cause the expectation of gold prices falling deeply to 70 million VND/tael to disappear, shattering the dreams of many people?

Factors that make it difficult for gold price to drop to 70 million VND

World gold prices rose sharply again as the USD remained at a very high level after a strong increase following the election victory of Mr. Trump. The DXY index as of the evening of November 18 (Vietnam time) was at 105.8 points, higher than the 105.4 points on the evening of November 6 and the 103.7 points on the evening of November 5.

The pressure of a rising US dollar could not stop gold from rallying again.

Gold prices rose after Elon Musk - a billionaire who played a key role in Mr. Trump's victory - and Mr. Trump's eldest son warned that World War 3 was imminent after US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Russian soil.

Gold is also expected to increase again due to demand from "big players" around the world, including China, after the country's central bank stopped buying gold for 6 consecutive months due to high prices.

Gold is also expected to benefit from the peak gold consumption season in Asia, as major countries such as China and India enter the wedding and year-end festival season.

Recently, many experts have predicted that gold will continue to fluctuate strongly and face new declines, possibly down to $2,400/ounce, or even $2,300 before the end of 2024, especially when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signals a delay in lowering interest rates. A strong USD could put pressure on gold.

However, sharing with VietNamNet, banking and finance expert Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that the probability of gold prices falling to such a low level is low. The possibility of gold prices increasing is higher.

Previously, this expert said that the pressure on gold prices may only last for a short time. Public debt, inflation and Donald Trump's extreme tax policies are likely to bring gold prices back to their old levels.

In 2025 and 2026, when the Fed lowers interest rates further (thereby pushing the USD down) and Mr. Trump's unpredictable policies,... are considered to be supportive factors for gold. But on the contrary, if tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East decrease, gold will be sold off heavily.

Recently, many large organizations such as Goldman Sachs have not adjusted their forecast for gold prices to $3,000/ounce in 2025. However, some experts believe that with the above scenario, the precious metal may increase but will find it difficult to reach $3,000.

Gold prices are falling freely: Will plain rings fall to 70 million, or will they increase again? The world financial market has fluctuated strongly after Donald Trump won the election. Gold prices have fallen freely to the threshold of 2,600 USD, plain gold rings are down to 80 million VND/tael. How long will the gold price plummet and when will it increase again?