World gold price increases, gold ring price surpasses SJC gold bar price

On July 12, the market witnessed a strong breakthrough of gold rings. From a level lower than SJC gold bars by over 10 million VND/tael at the beginning of the year, the price of gold rings has become equal, and some brands have even surpassed the price of SJC gold bars. This is the first time in history that the price of gold rings has "surpassed" that of SJC gold bars.

Specifically, the price of 9999 round smooth gold rings at Doji increased to 76.15-77.4 million VND/tael (buy - sell); at Bao Tin Minh Chau it was 75.88-77.18 million VND/tael; at SJC, gold rings of type 1-5 were only 75.1-76.7 million VND/tael; at PNJ it was 75.15-76.6 million VND/tael.

Not only did it increase by more than half a million VND compared to the previous day's closing price, gold rings at Doji were more expensive than SJC gold bars by 1.17 million VND/tael (buying) and 420,000 VND/tael (selling); at Bao Tin Minh Chau, it was 380,000 VND/tael (buying) and 200,000 VND/tael (selling) higher.

Meanwhile, the price of SJC gold bars has been stable for many weeks, staying at 76.98 million VND/tael (selling price), only increasing by about 500,000 VND/tael for buying price.

The price of gold rings increased sharply in the context of the sharp increase in world gold prices. In recent sessions, the price of gold rings often fluctuated in the same direction as the world market. Therefore, investors should refer to the world market and experts' opinions before making investment decisions.

In addition, gold rings are becoming an option for investors when the quantity of SJC gold bars is not easily met. Many forecasts say that gold rings will continue to “dance” in the next trading sessions, even increasing higher if the world gold price approaches a new record.

Globally, precious metals are heading for a third consecutive week of gains amid lower-than-expected US inflation data that has bolstered hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September.

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World gold prices are heading towards a new record high. Photo: HH

Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, said the consumer price index (CPI) for June, which was lower than expected, would pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September and likely cut again in 2024, expected in December, if inflation continues to decline.

Not only that, after a series of economic data was recently released that was beneficial to the gold market, some analysts even said that the Fed could cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting on July 30-31.

The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased to 93% from 70% before the CPI data was released, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Factors holding back gold's rise

Inflationary pressures in the United States eased in the middle of last week, with headline inflation falling to an annual rate of 3 percent, data that sparked optimism in the precious metals market, pushing spot gold and August futures above $2,400 an ounce.

The positive sentiment was further reinforced by comments from Fed officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed support for a rate cut, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation was moving toward the Fed's desired 2% target.

These statements further confirm that the US Central Bank will soon implement monetary policy easing.

However, bullish sentiment in the gold market temporarily faded after the producer price index (PPI) reported late last week showed wholesale inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.7% year-on-year, beating economists' expectations of a 2.2% increase in May.

Immediately after the report, this surprise caused the price of August gold futures to fluctuate strongly, falling from $2,421/ounce to $2,396/ounce, then recovering to above $2,400/ounce.

While CPI data shows progress in curbing inflation, PPI data shows persistent inflationary pressures at the wholesale level. This difference has sparked debate about the Fed's future interest rate decisions.

Although June's economic reports caused the gold market to witness strong fluctuations in a positive direction, there are still potential risks, forcing investors to closely monitor signs of changes in monetary policy.

Many investors who expect the Fed to cut interest rates more than once a year are now preparing for only one cut in September.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at online commodities trading firm KCM Trade, said the inflation outlook and interest rate picture have shifted in favor of gold, so the market is moving closer to a low-interest-rate environment and gold prices are likely to set new record highs before the end of the year.

Gold prices may hit a historic peak in the next few days, how will ring gold fare? World gold prices broke out in the week of July 8-12 and are forecast to hit a new peak in the next few days, in the context of many changes in the international financial market, especially the US policy turning point.