Gold prices are forecast to fluctuate unpredictably; Will the USD maintain its strong growth momentum in the new week?

Việt NamViệt Nam25/03/2024

Gold prices are forecast to fluctuate unpredictably, what should investors do to avoid losing money?

Today, SJC gold is anchored at over 80 million VND/tael, world gold is forecast to fluctuate unpredictably in the new week, so gold investment needs to be cautious.

At the time of survey at 5:00 a.m. on March 25, 2024, the gold price on the trading floors of some companies was as follows:

DOJI listed the price of 9999 gold at 78.10 million VND/tael for buying and 80.10 million VND/tael for selling.

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Gold prices are expected to fluctuate unpredictably.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau Company Limited is also traded by the enterprise at 78.05 - 79.95 million VND/tael (buy - sell). Meanwhile, at Bao Tin Manh Hai, it is being traded at 78.05 - 80.15 million VND/tael (buy - sell).

According to Kitco, the world gold price recorded at 5:00 a.m. today, Vietnam time, was at 2,165.310 USD/ounce. Converted according to the current exchange rate at Vietcombank, the world gold price is about 63.945 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees). Thus, the price of SJC gold bars is still 14.055 million VND/tael higher than the international gold price.

Will the USD maintain its strong growth momentum in the new week?

Today, the VND/USD exchange rate and USD VCB recorded a slight increase. Will the world USD maintain its strong increase in the new week?

The central VND/USD exchange rate announced by the State Bank is adjusted to 24,003 VND/USD, up 4 VND compared to the trading session on March 22.

Currently, the exchange rate allowed for trading by commercial banks ranges from 23,400 - 25,153 VND/USD. The US Dollar exchange rate has also been brought to the buying and selling range by the State Bank of Vietnam from 23,400 to 25,153 VND/USD.

The USD exchange rate at banks and domestic foreign exchange rates this morning recorded a series of upward adjustments at banks. Specifically, Vietcombank has a buying price of 24,580 and a selling price of 24,950, maintaining an increase of 40 VND compared to the trading session on March 22. The current USD buying and selling prices are in the range of 23,400 - 25,300 VND/USD.

In the world market, the Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the USD against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), stopped at 104.43 points - up 0.98% compared to the transaction on March 22.

Domestic steel stable; steel imports from China to Vietnam increase

Today's steel price on March 25, 2024, recorded the highest steel export output in the period 2017-2023, returning to over 80 million tons/year. This level corresponds to the period 2014-2015, when China boosted steel exports to other countries due to oversupply.

The operating efficiency of blast furnaces in Tangshan (China's steelmaking hub) remains at 70%. In addition, the prospect of production cuts in 2024 is unclear.

These two factors show that the amount of Chinese steel exported to countries including Vietnam will remain high, in the context of low domestic consumption.

Therefore, the risk of Vietnam's steel market being negatively affected by the Chinese market (especially construction steel) in terms of sales competition with domestic steel producers.

In addition, Vietnamese steel prices are affected by fluctuations in Chinese steel prices, with high correlation between markets.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, in the first two months of 2024, the amount of iron and steel imported into Vietnam was nearly 2.65 million tons, nearly double that of the same period last year. Of which, steel imported from China accounted for over 68% of the country's total imports, reaching 1.8 million tons, 3 times higher in volume and 2.4 times higher in value.

The current situation of sharp increase in Chinese steel imports is due to the fact that most steel products imported into Vietnam have an import tax of 0%.


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