The official exchange rate this afternoon increased by 60-70 compared to early morning, up to nearly 24,000 VND, after the State Bank increased the USD selling price.
On the afternoon of August 14, at Vietcombank, the USD buying and selling price increased by 60 VND compared to the beginning of the morning to 23,620 - 23,990 VND. Compared to the end of the week, the USD price at this bank increased by 80 VND.
BIDV's exchange rate this afternoon also increased by 60 VND to 23,665 - 23,965 VND. At another state-owned bank, VietinBank, the USD price even exceeded 24,000 VND, with the buying price at 23,580 VND and the selling price at 24,040 VND per dollar.
In the private group, Eximbank also raised the buying and selling price by 60 VND compared to the morning, trading at 23,590 - 23,970 VND. As for Sacombank, the exchange rate increased to 23,615 - 23,968 VND. This is the highest price since March this year.
The USD price traded at commercial banks increased sharply after the State Bank increased the USD selling price at the Exchange this morning. Specifically, the operator increased the selling price of the US dollar by 12 VND to 24,990 VND, keeping the buying price unchanged at 23,400 VND.
The central exchange rate announced by the State Bank on August 14 was 23,848 VND per USD. With a 5% margin, the US dollar price allowed to be traded at commercial banks is in the range of 22,655 - 25,040 VND.
On the free market, the USD price is trading at 23,750 - 23,830 VND, slightly down on the buying side and up 15 VND on the selling side compared to yesterday.
The Vietnam Economic and Foreign Exchange Market Outlook Report for the Last 6 Months of 2023 by Shinhan Bank also stated that the VND is at risk of devaluation in the short term due to international pressure.
Vietnam’s trade-to-GDP ratio is over 100 percent, and the dong has historically moved in tandem with the yuan as China is its largest trading partner. China’s manufacturing sector has lost momentum after a brief recovery earlier this year, leading to a recent weakening of the yuan, which Shinhan Bank said could weigh on the dong in the short term.
Despite being sensitive to external factors, Shinhan Bank predicts that the exchange rate will remain well controlled as it is less sensitive to foreign investment and stock market indices.
Shinhan Bank experts predict the exchange rate will increase in the third quarter and turn down in the fourth quarter with expectations that China will adjust its economic policy and the global manufacturing sector will bottom out.
The analysis team of KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) also believes that the exchange rate remains stable thanks to abundant foreign currency supply and proactive management policies.
KBSV forecasts that the USD/VND exchange rate will increase by about 2% throughout 2023. This slight depreciation, according to the securities company, will not force the State Bank to raise interest rates or sell foreign exchange reserves.
Quynh Trang
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