Cocoa prices continue to surge to historic highs due to supply shortage concerns

The industrial raw material group attracted attention when it went against the general trend of the whole market. Notably, cocoa prices continued to break out and climb to a historical peak amid concerns about supply shortages.

Dak Lak province currently has about 1,140 hectares of cocoa. (Photo: Hoai Thu/VNA)

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that red returned to dominate the world raw material price list yesterday (December 16).

At the close, the MXV-Index fell 0.12% to 2,221 points. At the end of the first trading session of the week, the MXV-Index of the industrial materials group increased, going against the general trend of the whole market. The focus of the market was on cocoa when the price of this commodity returned to the historical peak set in April this year.

Specifically, cocoa prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE-US) yesterday increased by 4.61%, re-establishing a historical peak. During the session, the price approached the 12,000 USD/ton mark. Speculators continued to increase purchases due to concerns about supply shortages.

Cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast estimate that the volume of cocoa arriving in the country from October 1 to December 8 this year increased by 34% compared to the same period last year. However, this high increase is due to the fact that last year, the harvest and export volume of Cotê d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) were low and decreased sharply.

Compared to 2022, the amount of cocoa imported is about 12% lower. Currently, dry weather in Cotê d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) is raising concerns that this will affect upcoming productivity and output.

Cooperatives had previously said that most of the main harvest had been completed by November and the shortage was expected to last until February or March. Meanwhile, multinational exporters are concerned that they may not be able to meet orders due to shortages from farmers in the coming months.

Besides cocoa, coffee prices also recorded good increases yesterday, especially Arabica coffee. Accordingly, Arabica coffee contract price for March 2025 increased by 2.47% and Robusta coffee contract price for March 2025 increased by 0.37% compared to the reference. Below-average rainfall in Brazil's main coffee growing region has raised concerns about supply in Brazil amid mixed fundamental information.

Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee-growing state, received just 35.2mm of rain last week, just 65% of its historical average, according to the Somar Meteorological Agency. This means Brazil’s main coffee-growing region has been experiencing consistently low rainfall since April, which could negatively impact the development of the 2025-2026 crop, leading to a negative supply outlook.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast this morning (December 17) were recorded at 123,500-125,200 VND/kg, unchanged from December 16. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have now doubled./.

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