Coffee export prices drop dramatically after many record increases

At the end of the trading session on April 18, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange turned down sharply, with the May 2024 delivery term down 153 USD, trading at 4,234 USD/ton. The July 2024 delivery term down 133 USD, trading at 4,195 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell sharply, with the May 2024 delivery term down 8.10 cents, trading at 239.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the July 2024 delivery term fell 9.25 cents, trading at 231.10 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices have continuously surpassed the records they have just achieved, surpassing the 110,000 VND/kg mark, then surpassing the 122,000 VND/kg mark on April 18. The price of raw coffee beans in the first days of April in key purchasing areas increased by nearly 60% compared to the beginning of the year and increased 2.1 times compared to the same period last year. This is also the highest price ever.

In the domestic market, along with the decline of the international market, coffee prices in the provinces decreased by 1,000 - 1,200 VND/kg. Specifically, on April 19, coffee prices in Dak Lak reached 121,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 VND compared to the previous day; in Lam Dong, it reached 120,600 VND/kg, down 1,000 VND/kg; in Gia Lai, it reached 120,800 VND/kg, down 1,200 VND/kg. Coffee prices in Dak Nong also recorded a decrease of 1,000 VND/kg, reaching 121,200 VND/kg.

Currently, the coffee harvest for the 2023-2024 crop year has ended. According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), there may be a shortage of supply in the coffee market, but the cause does not come from subjective factors in Vietnam.

In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 585,696 tons of coffee with a turnover of 1.9 billion USD, the highest level since 2013, becoming one of the agricultural export products with the strongest growth in the period. However, the price of coffee continuously reaching new peaks has created many challenges for businesses in the industry. Businesses need to mobilize large capital to purchase coffee, but credit limits do not allow it.

In the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s key coffee-producing region, the price of raw Robusta coffee beans in early April reached nearly VND110,000/kg, up nearly 60% compared to the beginning of the year and 2.1 times higher than the same period last year. This is also the highest price ever.


In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 585,696 tons of coffee with a turnover of 1.9 billion USD.

In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 585,696 tons of coffee with a turnover of 1.9 billion USD.

Coffee prices have risen partly due to concerns about supply shortages. According to experts, the world's coffee output this year is expected to decrease by about 10-15%. Meanwhile, Vietnam's output in the 2023-2024 crop year is forecast to decrease by 10%. In addition, tensions in the Red Sea have increased shipping costs and many other costs, thereby creating pressure to push coffee prices even higher.

In the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam exported coffee to 37 major markets. Of which, 12 export markets had a turnover of over 10 million USD with a total value of 1.36 billion USD, accounting for 71% of Vietnam's total coffee export turnover in the quarter.

Germany is Vietnam's largest coffee export market at 3,168 USD/ton, reaching 229 million USD, up 56% over the same period last year. Following are Italy with 196 million USD, Spain with 150 million USD, Japan with 131 million USD, the US with 119 million USD, Indonesia with 105 million USD.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts global coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year to increase by 5.8% compared to the previous crop year to 178 million bags. Consumption is expected to increase by 2.2% to 177 million bags, the world coffee market will have a surplus of 1 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year.

Global coffee exports are showing signs of recovery in the first quarter after a decline in the previous crop year. Both Robusta and Arabica coffee prices have increased sharply since the beginning of the year. Robusta coffee prices broke a record high since coffee futures began trading in 2008, while Arabica coffee reached its highest level in more than two years.

Concerns about the coffee crop in Brazil and Vietnam are driving funds to buy coffee futures. Previously, concerns about the crop and crop situation in Brazil and Vietnam had pushed coffee prices up sharply for several days. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association forecasts a 15% decline in output in the 2024-2025 crop year.

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