Vietnam's coffee exports reach nearly 1.2 million tons
According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, coffee exports in October 2024 are estimated at 50,000 tons, worth 292.7 million USD. In the first 10 months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached nearly 1.2 million tons, earning 4.6 billion USD. Although the volume of coffee exports decreased by 10.8%, the value skyrocketed by 40.1% compared to the same period in 2023.
The average export price of coffee in the first 10 months is estimated at 3,981 USD/ton, up 57% over the same period in 2023. This is a record high price in the past 30 years.
According to a report by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), Vietnam exported about 1.46 million tons of coffee, down 12.1% compared to the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to October 2024). The export volume decreased but the turnover increased by 33.1%, to 5.43 billion USD. This is the highest export turnover in a coffee crop year ever.
This is also the first time coffee exports in a coffee crop year have exceeded the 5 billion USD mark. High export prices are the main driving force for Vietnam's coffee exports to surpass the above mentioned mark.
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| The average export price of coffee in the first 10 months is estimated at 3,981 USD/ton, up 57% over the same period in 2023. Photo: MH |
Mr. Do Ha Nam – Vice President of VICOFA, said that 2024 is a special year for the coffee industry. For the first time, Vietnamese coffee prices are the highest in the world. The export price of Robusta coffee (Vietnam’s coffee with the highest output in the world) is higher than the price of Arabica coffee.
Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's coffee export price has been increasing continuously. Specifically, in January, our country's coffee export price was only 3,054 USD/ton, by October it had jumped to 5,855 USD/ton. That means, within 10 months, the price of this item has increased by 91.7%.
Similarly, the price of green coffee beans in the domestic market at the end of October last year only fluctuated from 58-59 million VND/ton, by November 8 it had increased to 105-106 million VND/ton. At the end of April, the highest price was recorded at 131 million VND/ton at the end of April.
Recently, world coffee prices have increased due to many reasons, including the impact of climate change and the El Nino phenomenon causing drought across coffee growing regions around the world, leading to a decrease in supply.
Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai – Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) – said that the important factor causing the increase in coffee prices is the EU’s anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR). Currently, Vietnamese coffee has been exported to over 80 countries and territories around the world.
The European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) states that from December 30, companies cannot export certain agricultural products (including coffee) to this market without proving that their products are not linked to deforestation. However, for small companies, the EUDR has been delayed until July 2025. Therefore, many European businesses are actively buying coffee.
In addition to records in prices and export turnover, Vietnamese coffee is increasingly showing its important role in the world market demand. This not only brings economic benefits to coffee growers but also affirms the position of Vietnamese coffee in the international market.
Vietnam’s coffee is entering a new harvest season. VICOFA forecasts that coffee export output will recover in the last months of the year due to both supply and demand.
World coffee prices continue to reverse
On the London exchange, at the end of the most recent trading session, the price of Robusta coffee in London for January 2025 delivery decreased by 110 USD/ton, at 4,376 USD/ton, and for March 2025 delivery decreased by 106 USD/ton, at 4,318 USD/ton.
On the New York floor, the price of Arabica coffee for delivery in December 2024 decreased by 7.05 cents/lb, at 253.35 cents/lb, and the price of delivery in March 2025 decreased by 6.65 cents/lb, at 253.1 cents/lb.
Coffee prices on both exchanges fell after a strong increase the day before. The green dollar returned, causing coffee prices to fall. In recent days, the coffee market has been constantly adjusting according to the fluctuations of the dollar. When the greenback increases, coffee prices decrease and vice versa.
The strong rebound of the US dollar has put pressure on the commodity market in general and coffee prices in particular. In addition, information about increased global coffee exports has also affected the market.
Meanwhile, on November 7, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, after policymakers assessed that the labor market had generally loosened and inflation continued to move towards the 2% target.
The Fed’s latest decision has brought the US policy interest rate down to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Immediately after the Fed’s decision, many banks around the world have cut interest rates. In a recent report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports in September increased by 24.9% compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of 10.76 million bags.
At the end of the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to September 2024), total global coffee exports increased by 11.7% compared to the previous crop year, reaching a total of 137.27 million bags.
Of which, global green coffee exports in September reached a total of 9.69 million bags, up 25.2% over the same period last year.
In the 2023-24 coffee crop year, global green coffee exports are estimated to reach 123.75 million bags, up 11.8% (13.02 million bags) from the previous crop year’s 110.72 million bags. This is the largest annual increase ever, surpassing the previous high of 9.27 million bags in the 1995-1996 coffee crop year.
The ICO said that the growth in global coffee exports in 2023-24 largely reflects the base effect of two consecutive years of decline (1.1% and 5.6%), with world green coffee exports falling from 118.66 million bags in coffee year 2020-21 to 110.72 million bags in coffee year 2022-23.
According to the ICO, global green coffee exports increased by an average of 2.36 million bags per year from coffee year 2010-11 to 2020-21, while increasing by only 1.69 million bags per year from coffee year 2020-21 to 2023-24. Actual exports are still below the potential of 125.73 million bags.
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