| Coffee export prices set record high Robusta coffee prices continue to soar, setting a new record |
Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) said that Vietnam's coffee exports in the first half of September reached 17,305 tons, bringing in more than 87 million USD, down about 18% in volume but up about 55.1% in value compared to the same period last year.
Of which, the main product is still Robusta coffee with 15,155 tons, average unit price of 5,053 USD/ton, bringing in 76.583 million USD.
1,129 tons of Arabica coffee were exported, with an average unit price of 4,166 USD/ton, bringing in 4.705 million USD. Thus, the export price of Vietnamese Robusta coffee exceeded the price of Arabica coffee by 887 USD/ton.
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| The export price of Vietnam's Robusta coffee beans has increased sharply and is far higher than the price of Arabica coffee beans by 887 USD/ton. Photo: Ngoc Hai |
The export price of Robusta coffee was first recorded to be higher than that of Arabica coffee in May with a gap of 32 USD/ton (Robusta coffee beans at 3,920 USD/ton and Arabica coffee at 3,888 USD/ton) and then the gap widened as the price increase of Robusta coffee was stronger.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), there are two popular types of coffee in the world: Arabica, accounting for 55-60% of production, and Robusta, accounting for 40-45% of production.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, VICOFA said that due to soil conditions, Robusta coffee output accounts for 94% of output, while Arabica only accounts for 6%.
A coffee market expert said that previously, the price of Robusta coffee was only 1/3 to 1/2 of the price of Arabica coffee. Just 2 years ago, in the coffee crop year (from October of the previous year to September of the following year) 2021 - 2022, the average export price of Robusta coffee was at 1,980 USD/ton, less than half the price of Arabica coffee (4,333 USD/ton).
Currently, Robusta prices are almost on par with premium Arabica, which has also risen sharply in recent times. Volcafe, one of the major coffee traders, also forecasts a severe global Robusta shortage in 2024-2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of such a situation.
Robusta will account for more than 95% of Vietnam’s coffee output in the coming season, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Demand is high, but supply is severely affected by the weather, causing Robusta coffee prices to more than double over the past year.
Mr. Do Ha Nam – Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) – commented that the price of Robusta coffee being higher than Arabica is very unusual. From the past until now, the price of Arabica coffee has always been very high and much higher than that of Robusta coffee, often twice as high.
Explaining this, Mr. Nam said that in the world, people use a lot of Arabica coffee, while Robusta coffee is often used to blend with Arabica coffee. Vietnamese Robusta coffee has its own flavor and is cheaper than Robusta coffee from many other countries, so the world's largest coffee traders all buy Vietnamese Robusta coffee.
On the other hand, the EU – the world’s largest coffee import market, is increasingly introducing regulations on food safety, the environment, etc., which also creates opportunities for Vietnamese coffee.
According to Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, Dak Lak province, Vietnam's harvest output is expected to decrease by about 10-15% this crop season due to climate change and shrinking coffee cultivation area.
“Drought causes trees to produce less and smaller fruit. Heavy rains prevent farmers from harvesting and drying coffee, and also cause difficulties in transportation,” Mr. Minh shared.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output will decrease by 1% in the upcoming season, to 27.85 million 60-kg bags. However, this figure is about 9% lower than the 2021-2022 season. This reflects a long-term trend of declining production while global demand continues to increase.
Robusta is expected to continue to gain market share because it is more heat-tolerant and disease-resistant than Arabica. However, the decline in production could be bad news for coffee drinkers around the world, as prices are likely to remain high.
Continuous rains after Typhoon Yagi made landfall in the north of Vietnam have left coffee growing areas inundated.
According to calculations by gardeners, with the price of coffee at the beginning of this year at 120,000 VND/kg, coffee gardens can earn a profit of 200 - 250 million VND/ha. Although this is a very high profit compared to many years of growing coffee, it is still lower than growing durian, with a profit of up to 500 - 700 million VND/ha, so coffee farmers can still convert to areas suitable for durian trees.
According to VICOFA, the 2023-2024 coffee crop is about to end (only half a month left in September) with the result that Vietnam exported 1.43 million tons of coffee, with a turnover of about 5.23 billion USD. In this crop, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee is 3,657 USD/ton. Vietnam mainly exports Robusta, Arabica, decaffeinated green coffee and processed coffee (roasted, ground, instant)...
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