| Robusta and Arabica coffee prices are forecast to decrease in the coming time. Coffee price forecast on June 23, 2024: Coffee prices may plummet? |
Coffee prices are forecast to continue to decline sharply on June 23, 2024 in the domestic market. The domestic coffee market has turned down compared to the same time yesterday. Coffee prices are on a downward trend after a report in the middle of last week by the US Department of Agriculture stated that global coffee production in the 2024/25 crop year will increase and inventories at the end of the 2024/25 crop year will also increase.
The agency expects world coffee production in 2024/25 to increase by about 4.2% to 176.235 million bags, with Arabica coffee rising 4.4% to 99.855 million bags and Robusta coffee production rising 3.9% to 76.38 million bags. Ending stocks in 2024/25 will increase by 7.7% compared to 2023/24, mainly due to higher yields in Brazil.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is picking up, a factor that has contributed to the decline in coffee prices. Inventories and a rising US dollar have also weighed on the two exchanges.
Coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh said that, in terms of macro, coffee prices depend a lot on the Fed's decision to lower interest rates. The market rises when there is hope for an early interest rate cut, and falls when there is disappointment.
According to the expert, this week, as soon as there is news that the Fed will lower interest rates, funds and speculators will immediately return to buying. This will push prices up on both exchanges.
Steven Blitz, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, said in a report published on June 19 that there is a 60% chance that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will surprise the market and cut interest rates next month.
With recent economic data showing cracks forming in the housing and labor markets, a rate cut could come sooner than most markets expect. “The Fed is likely to ease in July,” said Steven Blitz. Lower interest rates would be the doping that would send coffee soaring again.
Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on June 24, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, today's domestic coffee prices are in the range of 120,500-121,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,500 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 121,600 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,500 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 121,400 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 121,500 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,600 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,500 VND/kg.
Coffee prices today (June 24) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 121,500 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 121,400 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Updated world coffee prices at 20:10 on June 24, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,474 USD/ton, up 175 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 4,270 USD/ton, up 166 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 4,079 USD/ton, up 146 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,890 USD/ton, up 111 USD.
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| New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 24, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 228.85 - 234.70 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 234.70 cents/lb; up 9.70 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 232.40 cents/lb, up 9.15 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 231.05 cents/lb, up 9.40 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 228.85 cents/lb, up 9.35 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on June 24, 2024 fluctuated in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 was 284.25 USD/ton, down 4.90%; the delivery period for September 2024 was 286.00 USD/ton (up 12.10%); the delivery period for December 2024 was 282.80 USD/ton (up 12.10%) and the delivery period for March 2025 was 269.05 USD/ton, down 7.10%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.
Coffee growers in Vietnam have been hit hard by the worst drought in nearly a decade, raising concerns about higher global espresso prices, Reuters reported. Domestic forecasts for next season’s harvest in Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, remain bleak.
Deputy Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MVX) Nguyen Ngoc Quynh said output is expected to decrease by 10-16% due to extreme heat in the Central Highlands coffee region from March to early May.
The return of rain in recent weeks has improved the supply outlook, but it remains uncertain whether this will boost output and lower prices for Robusta, the bean typically used in espresso and instant coffee. Vietnam is the world’s top producer of Robusta beans.
Wholesale prices in Vietnam and Robusta coffee futures traded in London rose to record highs earlier this year, mainly following a poor harvest in Vietnam and concerns about the next harvest following drought, according to many traders and analysts.
Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.
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