Arabica coffee prices fall

Closing the last trading week, the prices of two coffee products also weakened last week when Arabica coffee decreased by 0.72% and Robusta coffee decreased by 0.98%.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), selling pressure dominated the world raw material market last week (December 23-29), causing the MXV-Index to drop slightly by 0.16% to 2,189 points. Notably, in the industrial raw material market, cocoa prices plummeted sharply, more than 15% to the lowest level in nearly three weeks. Meanwhile, in the metal market, prices of many commodities increased positively during the Christmas holiday week.

Thị trường hàng hóa hôm nay 30/12: Giá cà phê Arabica giảm

MXV-Index

Arabica and Robusta coffee prices fall

At the end of the trading week, the prices of both coffee commodities also weakened last week, with Arabica coffee down 0.72% and Robusta coffee down 0.98%. Last week, investors started liquidating contracts to take profits before the long Tet holiday at the end of the year. In addition, information about Brazil's export activities and estimates of a larger-than-expected global coffee trade surplus put pressure on prices of this commodity.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE), the South American country exported 4.66 million bags of coffee (60kg) in November, up 5.4% compared to the same period in 2023. In the first 11 months of 2024, Brazil reached a record export of nearly 46.4 million bags, up 3.78% compared to the highest level recorded in 2020, and up 32.2% compared to the same period in 2023.

In addition, in its supply-demand estimates, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that the global coffee market in the 2024-2025 crop year will have a surplus of 6.78 million 60kg bags, up 21.07% from the forecast in June and the largest surplus in the past 4 years. The USDA also estimated that the global coffee trade will have a surplus of 8.26 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year, 2.2 times higher than the previous forecast but 1.29 million bags lower than the 2023-2024 crop year. Of which, exports are expected to be 144.9 million bags and imports are 136.6 million bags.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and the Southeast this morning (December 30) were recorded at 120,300 - 121,000 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have doubled.

Besides, red dominated the price list of industrial raw materials, in which cocoa price attracted attention when it plummeted 15.3%.

Cocoa prices have lost about $2,400 a tonne from last week’s record high to just over $10,100 a tonne in just one week, ending a six-week winning streak. Selling pressure was concentrated in the last two sessions of the week as investors increased profit-taking after the Christmas holiday. However, market fundamentals still point to concerns about the ability to meet cocoa supply in the first months of 2025.

Industrial raw material price list

In Côte d’Ivoire, cocoa farmers have expressed concerns about supplies in the first months of 2025 due to the impact of strong dry monsoons in the main producing areas. Strong Harmattan winds combined with low rainfall have caused cocoa leaves to dry out, weakening trees and affecting production. The areas most affected include the Central West of Daloa, the Yamoussoukro Center and the Bongouanou Center, with little or no rainfall.

Cocoa exporters in Côte d’Ivoire estimate that cocoa arrivals from October 1 to December 22 reached 972,000 tonnes, up 30% year-on-year. However, the increase is mainly due to a sharp decline in cocoa production and exports in the previous 2023-2024 crop year. Current cocoa arrivals remain low compared to previous normal seasons.

Green covers the agricultural market

According to MXV, contrary to the overall market trend, buying power dominated the agricultural market last week. Notably, after two consecutive weeks of weakness and closure, soybean prices recorded a slight increase of more than 0.5%. The price of this commodity was supported by concerns about the supply situation in South America and positive export prospects of US soybeans.

Agricultural product price list

In South America, dry weather is expected to persist in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and southwestern Paraguay this week. In Argentina, in particular, the market is concerned about a prolonged drought and the possibility of no rains in January. If this happens, soybean yields in Argentina will be affected due to lack of moisture needed for growth, which helped support prices yesterday.

In addition, market demand remains generally positive. In its Export Inspections report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the country delivered 1.75 million tonnes of soybeans in the week ending December 19, up from 1.69 million tonnes the previous week and 1.12 million tonnes a year earlier. In addition, in its Daily Export Sales report on December 13, the USDA also said the US sold 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery in the 2024-2025 crop year to China. This shows that US export activities have improved in the past week, boosting buying power in the market.

In a similar vein, soybean meal prices extended their recovery into the second consecutive session, rising more than 2% last week. In addition to concerns about weather conditions in Argentina, a fire at the Bunge soybean processing plant in Cairo, Illinois (USA) also helped support prices. Although the fire has been brought under control, the time when the plant can resume operations is still unknown. This has raised concerns about short-term supply. Soybean oil prices have changed little over the past week.

In the domestic market, on December 26, the offer price of South American soybean meal to Vietnamese ports was relatively stable. At Vung Tau port, the offer price of soybean meal for delivery in February 2025 was VND 10,300/kg, while the March 2025 delivery price also fluctuated around VND 10,300/kg. At Cai Lan port, the offer price was about VND 150/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods