El Niño has officially appeared.

The natural weather phenomenon known as El Niño has begun in the Pacific Ocean, likely to exacerbate droughts and heatwaves around the world .

On June 8th, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that El Niño had begun and would intensify over the next year, potentially making 2024 the hottest year on record and pushing global average temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius. El Niño also affects world weather, bringing droughts to Australia, causing more rain in the southern United States, and weakening the monsoon in India.

For months, researchers have been predicting El Niño to appear in the Pacific Ocean. This natural phenomenon is the most dramatic change in Earth's climate system. El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has three distinct phases: warm, cold, and neutral. The warm phase, known as El Niño, occurs every 2–7 years, causing warm water to rise to the surface off the coast of South America, spreading across the ocean and pushing large amounts of heat into the atmosphere. Record-breaking hot years, including 2016 (the hottest year on record), often follow a strong El Niño event.

Temperatures exceeded 50 degrees Celsius in Hanoi on the afternoon of May 6th. Photo: Pham Chieu — Temperatures exceeded 50 degrees Celsius in Hanoi on the afternoon of May 6th. Photo: *Pham Chieu*

Weather agencies around the world use different criteria to determine when this warming phase occurs. For American scientists, their definition requires sea water to be 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal for a month, the atmosphere to react to this heat, and evidence of a sustained event. These conditions occurred this past May.

"This is a very weak sign. But we're starting to see the conditions and they're going to continue to strengthen," said Michelle L'Heureux, a scientist at NOAA. "Our weekly assessment recorded a 0.8°C warming this week."

A research team at NOAA estimates there is an 84% chance that El Niño will surpass moderate intensity by the end of this year and a 25% chance that it will develop into a "super El Niño." They predict that the effects of El Niño will be felt across the globe, including drier weather in Australia and Asia and weaker monsoons in India. Southern US states will experience wetter winters. El Niño also exacerbates drought conditions in Africa, leading to significant loss of life and economic damage. The strong El Niño of 1997-1998 caused over $5 trillion in damage and 23,000 deaths due to storms and floods.

An Khang (According to BBC )

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